Ranked picks with source labels.

Model at 60.7% converges with market-implied 60.8% on CHW. Burke (3.56 ERA) vs Lopez (7.04 ERA, 1.84 WHIP) is a clear mismatch favoring CHW. Model...

Market has LAD at 69.5% implied, model at 60.7% — 8.8 pp gap flags large disagreement. Ohtani (1.79 ERA, 9.98 K/9 over 85.7 IP) and Rodriguez (2.25...

Model favors SEA 57% but market has TBR -119 (53% implied). Away pitcher is fallback data (Castillo stats unavailable), making model's SEA lean str...

Model has WSN 56% vs market 41% — a 15-point gap flagged as large disagreement. Palmquist's 7.11 ERA in 6.3 IP (9 starts) suggests he's not startin...

Model has TEX 56% vs market 44% — a 12-point gap flags structural disagreement. Both starters sub-3.40 ERA qualify as ace matchup, yet model predic...

Model has MIA 52.7%, market 52.6%—dead heat. Total divergence is the story: model 9.08 vs market 7.0. MIA offense is real (7.5 RPG, .774 OPS) but M...

Greene's 21.6 ERA across 3.3 IP (10 starts listed but minimal innings) is incomplete data masquerading as disaster—model likely filling from team a...

Model gives STL 52.7% vs market's 39.7%, a 13-point gap favoring the home dog. Sale's 2.27 ERA and 10.61 K/9 over 95 IP is elite; Leahy's 3.86 ERA...

Model likes LAA at 51.9% vs market MIN -127 (54.8%). I side with market: Rodriguez's 8.06 ERA in 25.7 IP is genuine trouble, while Matthews' 4.43/1...

Market has BAL at 58.5% vs model's 50.0% — an 8.5 point gap. Young's 3.38 ERA over 77.1 IP is real; Avila's 5.05 ERA and 1.59 WHIP suggests vulnera...

Model projects 9.18 runs vs market 7.5 — a 1.68 run gap. Gray's 2.61 ERA and McLean's 3.73 in pitcher-neutral Citi Field (PF 1.03) don't support 9+...