Ranked picks with source labels.

Model (60.5%) and market (61.6%) agree on NYY slight favorite. Cole's 3.93 ERA in 55 IP is solid; Keller's 5.14 ERA in 103 IP is exploitable. Yanke...

Model has PHI at 59% but market implies LAD 52.5%. LAD has superior offense (.743 OPS vs .576) and better record (64-38 vs 56-46). Nola's 5.68 ERA...

Market data missing so no reference point for value. Model has BOS at 60.8% with Suarez (3.15 ERA, 9.56 K/9 in 91.3 IP) vs Bradish (3.61 ERA in 107...

Model at 58.5% vs market 56.6% on MIL—minimal comparison. Both pitchers sub-3.00 ERA (Henderson 2.97, Scott 2.87) with strong K rates (10.26, 10.86...

BOS starter is TBD with fallback stats (3.31 ERA, 9.64 K/9 over 89.7 IP), making both moneyline and total unreliable. No market data to triangulate...