Ranked picks with source labels.

Model (61.3%) and market (64%) both favor KCR; the pitching comparison is real with Wacha at 3.46 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 150.7 IP versus Barnett's...

Model has CIN at 55.9% vs market 46% — an 10-point gap on the team with the worse record (59-64) and far worse offense (3.2 RPG, .629 OPS vs STL's...

Model backs CIN despite a worse record (59-64 vs 63-61) and a large offensive gap (3.2 RPG/.629 OPS vs 5.2/.812) — the offense_defense_mismatch fla...