TEX at BOS

Model favors BOS at 60.2% vs market's 51.4%—an 8.8pp gap triggers market_disagreement_large. BOS is 28-40 despite .736 OPS; TEX 34-36 with worse .6...

Model favors WSN 53.5% vs market 44.8% (8.7pp gap). Hancock's 2.74 ERA, 8.68 K/9 over 75.7 IP is legit; Mikolas 5.90 ERA is exploitable. Market cor...

Model total of 9.09 vs market 14.0 is a catastrophic 5-run gap. Springs 4.68 ERA and Sugano 4.08 ERA are league-average arms, not shutdown aces. Mi...

Model at 57.5% vs market 59.0% on PIT is close enough. Skenes (2.84 ERA, 10.5 K/9) and Meyer (2.85 ERA, 9.8 K/9) suggest ace matchup, but model pro...

Model loves MIL at 57.5% but market has PHI favored at 51.9%. Ace matchup (Harrison 2.72 ERA, Sánchez 1.54 ERA) in a pitcher park (0.95 PF) screams...

Model has LAA at 57.5% vs market's 47.9% — a 9.6pp gap triggers market_disagreement_large. Rodriguez's 8.10 ERA in 23.1 IP is poor; Legumina's 3.07...

Model slightly favors ATL at 55.2%, market has them at 48.5% — a 6.7pp gap favoring the model's away side. ATL's superior record (46-24 vs 31-39) a...