OAK at BOS

Market (69.4%) is higher on BOS than the model (62.7%), and the underlying gap supports the market: Boston 7.5 RPG/.736 OPS vs Oakland 2.9 RPG/.512...

Model's 53.6% on WSN sits ~10 points above market's 43.4%, and the pitching comparison points the other way: Burns at 2.35 ERA, 10.39 K/9, 1.10 WHI...

Fading the model here: it takes NYY at 53% while market implies 43%, despite NYY scoring 2.8 RPG with a .692 OPS against Sale (2.08 ERA, 11.0 K/9,...

Model and market both sit near coin-flip (53.1% vs 52.6% implied), so there's no side comparison from the model. The offensive gap favors Houston:...

Model has NYM at 52.4% while the market implies 56% for PIT, an 8+ point gap I side with the market on. Stock's 5.0 IP across 4 starts signals an o...

Model has MIN at 52.4% against a market implying 58.5% home — an 11-point gap with the model taking the worse team (58-59 vs 72-44) and the worse o...

Market prices LAD near 63% while the model sits at 52.4% — a large gap I resolve toward the market. Yamamoto's 0.88 WHIP and 2.76 ERA over 133.7 IP...

Model's 8.83-run total is nearly two runs above the 7.0 market line despite T-Mobile's 0.855 park factor and two starters at 3.76 and 3.63 ERA — a...

Model's 52% on BAL leans on Statcast launch-angle noise and clashes with the market's 58.3% home. deGrom's 10.69 K/9 and 1.14 WHIP outclass Bradish...