MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-06-22 / 12 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-06-22
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
ATLAtlanta Braves-105
SDPSan Diego Padres-115
Pick Probability58%ATL moneyline
ATLGrant HolmesConfirmed
SDPMichael KingConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.9
Margin Context1.7
AI Analyst
ATL / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Model likes ATL 58.3% but market is dead even (50.8% home). Model margin of -1.72 suggests ATL by nearly 2 runs yet market sees a coinflip. ATL's 2...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
MILMilwaukee Brewers-152
CINCincinnati Reds+129
Pick Probability58%MIL moneyline
MILBrandon WoodruffConfirmed
CINBrady SingerConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context1.2
AI Analyst
MIL / lean confidence / Rank 11 / Agrees with model

MIL away pitcher is fallback (TBD), making total unreliable despite model's 7.95 vs market 9.5. Singer's 5.32 ERA in 66 IP is genuine weakness. MIL...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-152
MINMinnesota Twins+128
Pick Probability58%LAD moneyline
LADWill KleinConfirmed
MINZebby MatthewsConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.9
AI Analyst
LAD / lean confidence / Rank 9 / Agrees with model

Model at 58.3% LAD, market at 57.2% LAD—near convergence. Both pitchers mediocre (Matthews 4.78 ERA, Lauer 5.37 ERA) but model's 9.44 total sits be...

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
CLECleveland Guardians-110
CHWChicago White Sox-110
Pick Probability58%CLE moneyline
CLEGavin WilliamsConfirmed
CHWAnthony KayConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.9
AI Analyst
CLE / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Agrees with model

Model has CLE 58.3%, market is 50.6% (near pick-em). Williams' 10.11 K/9 in 91.7 IP is legitimate, Kay's 4.61 ERA over 70.3 IP suggests vulnerabili...

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
BOSBoston Red Sox-140
COLColorado Rockies+118
Pick Probability58%BOS moneyline
BOSJake BennettConfirmed
COLRyan FeltnerConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total11.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.4
AI Analyst
BOS / lean confidence / Rank 7 / Agrees with model

Model has BOS 58.3% vs market 53.8% — modest comparison. Coors Field (PF 1.47) screams over, but both offenses are weak (COL .531 OPS, BOS 2.9 RPG)...

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-06-22
Rank#1
ARI at STLArizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals
AI Analyst PickSTLstandard confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelARI / 53%Model pick probability

Model picks ARI at 53.4% but market has STL at 56.8% — a 15-point gap flags structural miss. ARI's offense is historically weak (2.3 RPG, .564 OPS) while Kelly's 5.81...

Rank#2
KCR at TBRKansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
AI Analyst PickTBRlean confidence
Agrees with modelTBR / 52%Model pick probability

Model has TBR at 51.7% while Pinnacle implies 63.1% — an 11.4pp gap flags structural miss. Rasmussen's 2.59 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 80 IP is elite; model's 9.11 total vs...

Rank#3
TEX at MIATexas Rangers at Miami Marlins
AI Analyst PickTEXlean confidence
Agrees with modelTEX / 53%Model pick probability

Model picks TEX at 53.4%, market has TEX at 47% (MIA -122). Both offenses are weak but MIA is notably better (3.0 RPG vs 2.1). Model's moneyline pick contradicts the o...

Rank#4
NYY at DETNew York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
AI Analyst PickNYYlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelDET / 53%Model pick probability

Market favors NYY at 54.3% implied, model has DET at 53.2%. Cole returning from injury (28 IP) creates uncertainty despite 2.57 ERA. DET offense is brutal (3.1 RPG, .5...

Rank#5
ATL at SDPAtlanta Braves at San Diego Padres
AI Analyst PickATLlean confidence
Agrees with modelATL / 58%Model pick probability

Model likes ATL 58.3% but market is dead even (50.8% home). Model margin of -1.72 suggests ATL by nearly 2 runs yet market sees a coinflip. ATL's 2.2 RPG season averag...

Rank#6
CLE at CHWCleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
AI Analyst PickCLElean confidence
Agrees with modelCLE / 58%Model pick probability

Model has CLE 58.3%, market is 50.6% (near pick-em). Williams' 10.11 K/9 in 91.7 IP is legitimate, Kay's 4.61 ERA over 70.3 IP suggests vulnerability. Rate Field's 1.0...

Rank#7
BOS at COLBoston Red Sox at Colorado Rockies
AI Analyst PickBOSlean confidence
Agrees with modelBOS / 58%Model pick probability

Model has BOS 58.3% vs market 53.8% — modest comparison. Coors Field (PF 1.47) screams over, but both offenses are weak (COL .531 OPS, BOS 2.9 RPG). Model's 11.75 tota...

Rank#8
BAL at LAABaltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels
AI Analyst PickBALlean confidence
Agrees with modelBAL / 58%Model pick probability

Model has BAL at 58.3%, market implies 59% (via -151). Minimal comparison. Bradish's 81 IP and 9.44 K/9 makes him the stronger starter vs Aldegheri's 20 IP sample. Mod...

Rank#9
LAD at MINLos Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Twins
AI Analyst PickLADlean confidence
Agrees with modelLAD / 58%Model pick probability

Model at 58.3% LAD, market at 57.2% LAD—near convergence. Both pitchers mediocre (Matthews 4.78 ERA, Lauer 5.37 ERA) but model's 9.44 total sits below market 9.5. Targ...

Rank#10
PHI at WSNPhiladelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
AI Analyst PickWSNlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelWSN / 52%Model pick probability

PHI pitcher is TBD/fallback (10 GS, 1.80 ERA looks like team substitute data). Model favors PHI 58% vs market WSN 53% — reverse positions. Griffin's 3.32 ERA in 84 IP...

Rank#11
MIL at CINMilwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
AI Analyst PickMILlean confidence
Agrees with modelMIL / 58%Model pick probability

MIL away pitcher is fallback (TBD), making total unreliable despite model's 7.95 vs market 9.5. Singer's 5.32 ERA in 66 IP is genuine weakness. MIL's .972 OPS and 45-3...

Rank#12
HOU at TORHouston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays
AI Analyst PickHOUlean confidence
Agrees with modelTOR / 56%Model pick probability

TOR starter is TBD (fallback to 4.73 ERA, 1.53 WHIP). Brown's 1.10 ERA in 16.1 IP is not sustainable but model correctly leans HOU. Market at HOU +110 vs model 53.4% i...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

12 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
ATLAtlanta Braves-105
SDPSan Diego Padres-115
Pick Probability58%ATL moneyline
ATLGrant HolmesConfirmed
SDPMichael KingConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.9
Margin Context1.7
AI Analyst
ATL / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Model likes ATL 58.3% but market is dead even (50.8% home). Model margin of -1.72 suggests ATL by nearly 2 runs yet market sees a coinflip. ATL's 2...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MILMilwaukee Brewers-152
CINCincinnati Reds+129
Pick Probability58%MIL moneyline
MILBrandon WoodruffConfirmed
CINBrady SingerConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context1.2
AI Analyst
MIL / lean confidence / Rank 11 / Agrees with model

MIL away pitcher is fallback (TBD), making total unreliable despite model's 7.95 vs market 9.5. Singer's 5.32 ERA in 66 IP is genuine weakness. MIL...

MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-152
MINMinnesota Twins+128
Pick Probability58%LAD moneyline
LADWill KleinConfirmed
MINZebby MatthewsConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.9
AI Analyst
LAD / lean confidence / Rank 9 / Agrees with model

Model at 58.3% LAD, market at 57.2% LAD—near convergence. Both pitchers mediocre (Matthews 4.78 ERA, Lauer 5.37 ERA) but model's 9.44 total sits be...

MLBMoneyline
Open
CLECleveland Guardians-110
CHWChicago White Sox-110
Pick Probability58%CLE moneyline
CLEGavin WilliamsConfirmed
CHWAnthony KayConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.9
AI Analyst
CLE / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Agrees with model

Model has CLE 58.3%, market is 50.6% (near pick-em). Williams' 10.11 K/9 in 91.7 IP is legitimate, Kay's 4.61 ERA over 70.3 IP suggests vulnerabili...

MLBMoneyline
Open
BOSBoston Red Sox-140
COLColorado Rockies+118
Pick Probability58%BOS moneyline
BOSJake BennettConfirmed
COLRyan FeltnerConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total11.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.4
AI Analyst
BOS / lean confidence / Rank 7 / Agrees with model

Model has BOS 58.3% vs market 53.8% — modest comparison. Coors Field (PF 1.47) screams over, but both offenses are weak (COL .531 OPS, BOS 2.9 RPG)...

MLBMoneyline
Open
BALBaltimore Orioles-162
LAALos Angeles Angels+135
Pick Probability58%BAL moneyline
BALKyle BradishConfirmed
LAASam AldegheriConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context1.1
AI Analyst
BAL / lean confidence / Rank 8 / Agrees with model

Model has BAL at 58.3%, market implies 59% (via -151). Minimal comparison. Bradish's 81 IP and 9.44 K/9 makes him the stronger starter vs Aldegheri...

MLBMoneyline
Open
HOUHouston Astros+110
TORToronto Blue Jays-132
Pick Probability56%TOR moneyline
HOUHunter BrownConfirmed
TORDylan CeaseConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
HOU / lean confidence / Rank 12 / Agrees with model

TOR starter is TBD (fallback to 4.73 ERA, 1.53 WHIP). Brown's 1.10 ERA in 16.1 IP is not sustainable but model correctly leans HOU. Market at HOU +...

MLBMoneyline
Open
TEXTexas Rangers+114
MIAMiami Marlins-135
Pick Probability53%TEX moneyline
TEXTyler AlexanderConfirmed
MIATyler PhillipsConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
TEX / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Model picks TEX at 53.4%, market has TEX at 47% (MIA -122). Both offenses are weak but MIA is notably better (3.0 RPG vs 2.1). Model's moneyline pi...

MLBMoneyline
Open
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+128
STLSt. Louis Cardinals-152
Pick Probability53%ARI moneyline
ARIMerrill KellyConfirmed
STLAndre PallanteConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.6
AI Analyst
STL / standard confidence / Rank 1 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model picks ARI at 53.4% but market has STL at 56.8% — a 15-point gap flags structural miss. ARI's offense is historically weak (2.3 RPG, .564 OPS)...

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYYNew York Yankees-126
DETDetroit Tigers+106
Pick Probability53%DET moneyline
NYYGerrit ColeConfirmed
DETFramber ValdezConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.4
Margin Context0.0
AI Analyst
NYY / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Market favors NYY at 54.3% implied, model has DET at 53.2%. Cole returning from injury (28 IP) creates uncertainty despite 2.57 ERA. DET offense is...

MLBMoneyline
Open
KCRKansas City Royals+158
TBRTampa Bay Rays-190
Pick Probability52%TBR moneyline
KCRMichael WachaConfirmed
TBRDrew RasmussenConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
TBR / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

Model has TBR at 51.7% while Pinnacle implies 63.1% — an 11.4pp gap flags structural miss. Rasmussen's 2.59 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 80 IP is elite; mo...

MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+105
WSNWashington Nationals-125
Pick Probability52%WSN moneyline
PHITim MayzaConfirmed
WSNFoster GriffinConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.5
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
WSN / lean confidence / Rank 10 / Analyst disagrees with base model

PHI pitcher is TBD/fallback (10 GS, 1.80 ERA looks like team substitute data). Model favors PHI 58% vs market WSN 53% — reverse positions. Griffin'...