MLB real data
MLB moneyline board.
Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.
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Strongest current spots
Model favors HOU 58% but market has TOR -127 (55% implied). Model likely overweighting HOU's short-window runs allowed without seeing Bieber's actu...
Model and market align on PHI (58% vs Pinnacle 62%). Luzardo's 10.19 K/9 over 85.7 IP is a legitimate comparison over Littell's 5.45 ERA. WSN's .82...
Model has MIL at 58.3%, market is dead even at 50-50. The 8.3pp disagreement flags structural risk. Both pitchers are struggling (Lodolo 6.12 ERA,...
Model has LAD at 58.3%, market at 63.6% — meaningful gap favoring LAD more than model sees. Rojas has just 14.1 IP this season; his 1.26 ERA is pur...
Model picks CLE at 58.3%, market implies 51.2% — modest comparison. Messick (2.70 ERA, 9.45 K/9) has clear SP advantage over Burke (3.89 ERA). Park...
AI Analyst Today
Ranked MLB analyst slate
Ryan Johnson's 12.83 ERA across 13.1 IP is a disaster; market correctly prices BAL as favorite. Model at 58.3% vs market 59.1% converges reasonably. Total: model predi...
Model and market align on PHI (58% vs Pinnacle 62%). Luzardo's 10.19 K/9 over 85.7 IP is a legitimate comparison over Littell's 5.45 ERA. WSN's .82 OPS suggests they c...
Model picks CLE at 58.3%, market implies 51.2% — modest comparison. Messick (2.70 ERA, 9.45 K/9) has clear SP advantage over Burke (3.89 ERA). Park factor 1.067 and ma...
Model has ARI 53.4%, market has STL 51.4% — tight split. Rodriguez (2.45 ERA, 88 IP) is pitching well vs Leahy (4.63 ERA, 70 IP). offense_defense_mismatch flag fires b...
Model has MIL at 58.3%, market is dead even at 50-50. The 8.3pp disagreement flags structural risk. Both pitchers are struggling (Lodolo 6.12 ERA, Sproat 5.94 ERA) but...
Model has LAD at 58.3%, market at 63.6% — meaningful gap favoring LAD more than model sees. Rojas has just 14.1 IP this season; his 1.26 ERA is pure small-sample noise...
Model favors OAK 53.4% vs market's 47.4% for home—a 6pp gap without structural flags to explain it. Oracle's 0.906 park factor supports under on the 8.5 total. SFG's ....
Home pitcher is fallback (Sullivan unresolved), away has Gray (3.12 ERA in 69 IP). Coors 1.47 park factor screams over; model 10.98 vs market 10.5 is tight. BOS offens...
Model favors HOU 58% but market has TOR -127 (55% implied). Model likely overweighting HOU's short-window runs allowed without seeing Bieber's actual stats (fallback d...
SDP starter is TBD/fallback with only 37.7 IP sample. ATL has superior offense (.789 OPS vs .547) and better record (46-31 vs 38-39). Market is near pick'em; model's 5...
Model likes DET 51.7% vs market 49.1%, essentially a coinflip. NYY offense is vastly superior (3.9 RPG vs 2.7, .692 OPS vs .582) and better record (45-32 vs 30-48). Mo...
Model has TEX 53.4%, market has MIA 59.1% — a 5.7pp gap triggering the large disagreement flag. MIA's 2.8 RPG on .774 OPS vs TEX's anemic 1.7 RPG on .698 OPS makes the...
MLB Board
Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context
Model favors HOU 58% but market has TOR -127 (55% implied). Model likely overweighting HOU's short-window runs allowed without seeing Bieber's actu...
Model and market align on PHI (58% vs Pinnacle 62%). Luzardo's 10.19 K/9 over 85.7 IP is a legitimate comparison over Littell's 5.45 ERA. WSN's .82...
Model has MIL at 58.3%, market is dead even at 50-50. The 8.3pp disagreement flags structural risk. Both pitchers are struggling (Lodolo 6.12 ERA,...
Model has LAD at 58.3%, market at 63.6% — meaningful gap favoring LAD more than model sees. Rojas has just 14.1 IP this season; his 1.26 ERA is pur...
Model picks CLE at 58.3%, market implies 51.2% — modest comparison. Messick (2.70 ERA, 9.45 K/9) has clear SP advantage over Burke (3.89 ERA). Park...
Home pitcher is fallback (Sullivan unresolved), away has Gray (3.12 ERA in 69 IP). Coors 1.47 park factor screams over; model 10.98 vs market 10.5...
Ryan Johnson's 12.83 ERA across 13.1 IP is a disaster; market correctly prices BAL as favorite. Model at 58.3% vs market 59.1% converges reasonably...
SDP starter is TBD/fallback with only 37.7 IP sample. ATL has superior offense (.789 OPS vs .547) and better record (46-31 vs 38-39). Market is nea...
Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.
Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.
Model has TEX 53.4%, market has MIA 59.1% — a 5.7pp gap triggering the large disagreement flag. MIA's 2.8 RPG on .774 OPS vs TEX's anemic 1.7 RPG o...
Model has ARI 53.4%, market has STL 51.4% — tight split. Rodriguez (2.45 ERA, 88 IP) is pitching well vs Leahy (4.63 ERA, 70 IP). offense_defense_m...
Model favors OAK 53.4% vs market's 47.4% for home—a 6pp gap without structural flags to explain it. Oracle's 0.906 park factor supports under on th...
Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.
Model likes DET 51.7% vs market 49.1%, essentially a coinflip. NYY offense is vastly superior (3.9 RPG vs 2.7, .692 OPS vs .582) and better record...