MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-09-17 / 18 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag fanatics mybookieag
MIL at PIT Sep 17, 10:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKyle Harrison MIL starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +125 betmgm / U -145 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% under
O 3.5 74% under
O 4.5 57% under
O 5.5 40% under
O 6.5 26% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Wilber Dotel PIT starter / home
Projected K 2.6 Actual 2 K / Over 1.5
Best price at 1.5 1.5 O -130 fanatics / U +103 draftkings 2 books at this line
Model over 1.5 73%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 73% over
O 2.5 48% under
O 3.5 27% under
O 4.5 13% under
O 5.5 6% under
O 6.5 2% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
LAD at CIN Sep 17, 10:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJustin Wrobleski LAD starter / away
Projected K 5.7 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -116 betonlineag / U -103 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 81%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 81% under
O 4.5 67% under
O 5.5 51% under
O 6.5 36% under
O 7.5 23% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Brady Singer CIN starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 bovada / U -135 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% under
O 2.5 84% under
O 3.5 68% under
O 4.5 50% under
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
OAK at TBR Sep 17, 11:10 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJeffrey Springs OAK starter / away
Projected K 3.2 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +122 fanduel / U -140 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 82% over
O 2.5 61% over
O 3.5 39% over
O 4.5 22% under
O 5.5 11% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Drew Rasmussen TBR starter / home
Projected K 6.0 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -140 fanduel / U +112 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 84% under
O 4.5 71% under
O 5.5 55% under
O 6.5 40% under
O 7.5 27% under
O 8.5 17% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
SDP at COL Sep 17, 1:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael King SDP starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 fanatics / U -135 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% over
O 5.5 33% over
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Tanner Gordon COL starter / home
Projected K 3.7 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -109 draftkings / U -105 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 70% over
O 3.5 49% under
O 4.5 31% under
O 5.5 17% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
PHI at NYM Sep 17, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAaron Nola PHI starter / away
Projected K 5.7 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 bovada / U -132 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 66% under
O 5.5 50% under
O 6.5 35% under
O 7.5 23% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Nolan McLean NYM starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +125 bovada / U -138 mybookieag 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 49% under
O 6.5 34% under
O 7.5 22% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
KCR at HOU Sep 17, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSeth Lugo KCR starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +136 betonlineag / U -158 mybookieag 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 44% over
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Miguel Ullola HOU starter / home
Projected K 2.2 Actual 0 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 65% under
O 2.5 38% under
O 3.5 19% under
O 4.5 8% under
O 5.5 3% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
DET at CHW Sep 17, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastFramber Valdez DET starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -104 mybookieag / U +100 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 37% over
O 5.5 22% over
O 6.5 12% over
O 7.5 6% over
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Erick Fedde CHW starter / home
Projected K 3.6 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +110 betmgm / U -120 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 70% over
O 3.5 49% over
O 4.5 30% over
O 5.5 17% over
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
BOS at TEX Sep 17, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSonny Gray BOS starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -110 draftkings / U -110 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 58% over
O 5.5 41% over
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Tyler Alexander TEX starter / home
Projected K 2.6 Actual 0 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 72% under
O 2.5 47% under
O 3.5 26% under
O 4.5 12% under
O 5.5 5% under
O 6.5 2% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
MIN at LAA Sep 17, 7:38 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTaj Bradley MIN starter / away
Projected K 6.3 Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -145 mybookieag / U +126 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 86% over
O 4.5 74% over
O 5.5 60% over
O 6.5 44% over
O 7.5 31% over
O 8.5 20% over
O 9.5 12% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Walbert Urena LAA starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -140 mybookieag / U +115 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 44% over
O 6.5 30% over
O 7.5 18% over
O 8.5 10% over
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.