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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-09-16 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
CHW at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Anthony KayCHW starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +110 betmgm / U -125 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Parker MessickCLE starter / home
Projected K6.7Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +100 betmgm / U -107 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.579%over
O 5.565%over
O 6.550%over
O 7.536%over
O 8.525%under
O 9.516%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

SFG at STL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Anthony MolinaSFG starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +100 bovada / U -121 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.563%over
O 3.541%over
O 4.523%over
O 5.512%over
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 fanduel / U -160 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%under
O 3.577%under
O 4.561%under
O 5.544%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

NYY at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Carlos RodónNYY starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +122 fanduel / U -135 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Zebby MatthewsMIN starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betmgm / U +126 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%over
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

DET at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Keider MonteroDET starter / away
Projected K3.1Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -145 draftkings / U +122 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 2.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.560%over
O 3.538%over
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Max ScherzerTOR starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +104 draftkings / U -120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

OAK at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Brady BassoOAK starter / away
Projected K2.5Actual 0 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -115 bovada / U -105 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 2.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.570%under
O 2.545%under
O 3.524%under
O 4.511%under
O 5.54%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Nick MartinezTBR starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 betonlineag / U +112 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

MIL at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Logan HendersonMIL starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +132 fanduel / U -159 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.524%over
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Jared JonesPIT starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 betmgm / U +105 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.534%over
O 7.522%over
O 8.513%over
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

LAD at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Blake SnellLAD starter / away
Projected K8.0Actual 1 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -125 betmgm / U +120 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 7.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%under
O 2.598%under
O 3.595%under
O 4.588%under
O 5.579%under
O 6.567%under
O 7.553%under
O 8.540%under
O 9.529%under
O 10.519%under
O 11.512%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Andrew AbbottCIN starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +110 bovada / U -134 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.532%over
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

PHI at WSN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Zack WheelerPHI starter / away
Projected K6.0Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +104 fanduel / U -110 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 6.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.555%under
O 6.540%under
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Jared SimpsonWSN starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.4Actual 0 K / Under 1.5
Best price at 1.51.5O -135 draftkings / U +106 draftkings1 book at this line
Model over 1.585%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%under
O 2.565%under
O 3.544%under
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

BAL at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Chris BassittBAL starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -150 betmgm / U +126 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.515%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Xzavion CurryNYM starter / home
Projected K3.4Actual 3 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%over
O 3.543%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

ATL at CHC / Final / frozen pregame forecast
JR RitchieATL starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -142 fanduel / U +125 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.548%over
O 4.529%over
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Shota ImanagaCHC starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 betmgm / U -163 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.547%over
O 6.532%over
O 7.520%over
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

BOS at TEX / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jake BennettBOS starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +116 fanduel / U -136 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.515%over
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -146 fanduel / U +122 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%under
O 2.587%under
O 3.573%under
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

KCR at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Daniel Lynch IVKCR starter / away
Projected K3.1Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -155 betmgm / U +128 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 2.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.559%over
O 3.538%under
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Cristian JavierHOU starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -108 fanduel / U +101 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%under
O 3.566%under
O 4.548%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

SDP at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Robbie RaySDP starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betonlineag / U -136 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.523%over
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Mason AdamsCOL starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -104 fanduel / U -115 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.578%under
O 3.559%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

SEA at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
George KirbySEA starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 bovada / U -124 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Yusei KikuchiLAA starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 betmgm / U -119 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

MIA at ARI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ryan GustoMIA starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -110 betmgm / U -106 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.565%over
O 3.544%over
O 4.526%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Merrill KellyARI starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +132 fanduel / U -152 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.515%over
O 7.58%over
O 8.54%over
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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