MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-09-15 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag fanatics mybookieag
OAK at TBR Sep 15, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJack Perkins OAK starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 8 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -150 fanatics / U +125 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 57% over
O 4.5 38% over
O 5.5 22% over
O 6.5 12% over
O 7.5 6% over
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Griffin Jax TBR starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -169 betonlineag / U +136 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 63%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 79% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 47% over
O 6.5 32% over
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
MIL at PIT Sep 15, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJacob Misiorowski MIL starter / away
Projected K 7.4 Actual 7 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.5 8.5 O +115 betmgm / U -141 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 8.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 93% over
O 4.5 84% over
O 5.5 73% over
O 6.5 60% over
O 7.5 46% under
O 8.5 33% under
O 9.5 22% under
O 10.5 14% under
O 11.5 9% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Lake Bachar PIT starter / home
Projected K 3.1 Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O +120 betonlineag / U -137 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 2.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 81% under
O 2.5 59% under
O 3.5 38% under
O 4.5 21% under
O 5.5 10% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
CHW at CLE Sep 15, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastChris Murphy CHW starter / away
Projected K 2.1 Actual 0 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 61% under
O 2.5 34% under
O 3.5 16% under
O 4.5 6% under
O 5.5 2% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Foster Griffin CLE starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -150 fanatics / U +120 betonlineag 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 33% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
LAD at CIN Sep 15, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastYoshinobu Yamamoto LAD starter / away
Projected K 7.0 Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O -118 fanduel / U -105 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 7.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 91% over
O 4.5 82% over
O 5.5 69% over
O 6.5 55% over
O 7.5 41% under
O 8.5 28% under
O 9.5 19% under
O 10.5 11% under
O 11.5 7% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Rhett Lowder CIN starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -113 draftkings / U -108 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 54% over
O 4.5 35% under
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
PHI at WSN Sep 15, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCristopher Sánchez PHI starter / away
Projected K 5.8 Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -108 fanduel / U +101 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 67% over
O 5.5 51% under
O 6.5 36% under
O 7.5 23% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Jackson Kent WSN starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -110 betmgm / U +102 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 62%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
DET at TOR Sep 15, 5:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDrew Anderson DET starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -135 bovada / U +114 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 68% over
O 3.5 47% over
O 4.5 29% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Braydon Fisher TOR starter / home
Projected K 2.6 Actual 1 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 73% under
O 2.5 48% under
O 3.5 27% under
O 4.5 13% under
O 5.5 5% under
O 6.5 2% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
BAL at NYM Sep 15, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShane Baz BAL starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -130 fanatics / U +109 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% under
O 3.5 68% under
O 4.5 50% under
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Sean Manaea NYM starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +118 fanduel / U -148 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 30%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 45% over
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
NYY at MIN Sep 15, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMax Fried NYY starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -123 betonlineag / U +122 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 43% over
O 5.5 27% over
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Bailey Ober MIN starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +128 betonlineag / U -156 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% under
O 4.5 49% under
O 5.5 33% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
ATL at CHC Sep 15, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMartín Pérez ATL starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +120 fanatics / U -149 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 74% under
O 3.5 54% under
O 4.5 35% under
O 5.5 21% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Kevin Gausman CHC starter / home
Projected K 6.0 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -113 fanduel / U +105 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 84% over
O 4.5 71% over
O 5.5 55% over
O 6.5 40% under
O 7.5 27% under
O 8.5 17% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
SFG at STL Sep 15, 5:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBlade Tidwell SFG starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +102 fanduel / U -115 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 69% over
O 3.5 48% over
O 4.5 29% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Andre Pallante STL starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -122 fanduel / U +105 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 76% under
O 3.5 57% under
O 4.5 38% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
BOS at TEX Sep 15, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastPatrick Sandoval BOS starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +132 fanduel / U -160 betmgm 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 35% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Jacob deGrom TEX starter / home
Projected K 6.5 Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -111 fanduel / U -115 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 87% over
O 4.5 76% over
O 5.5 62% over
O 6.5 47% over
O 7.5 33% over
O 8.5 22% under
O 9.5 13% under
O 10.5 8% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
KCR at HOU Sep 15, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael Wacha KCR starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -108 betonlineag / U -105 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% under
O 3.5 71% under
O 4.5 54% under
O 5.5 37% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Hunter Brown HOU starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -108 betonlineag / U +102 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 68% over
O 5.5 52% over
O 6.5 37% over
O 7.5 24% over
O 8.5 15% over
O 9.5 8% over
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
SDP at COL Sep 15, 6:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastWalker Buehler SDP starter / away
Projected K 3.7 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +128 draftkings / U -142 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% under
O 2.5 70% under
O 3.5 50% under
O 4.5 31% under
O 5.5 17% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Kyle Freeland COL starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -120 betmgm / U +117 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 2.5 74%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% under
O 2.5 74% under
O 3.5 54% under
O 4.5 35% under
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
SEA at LAA Sep 15, 7:38 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLogan Gilbert SEA starter / away
Projected K 7.1 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -125 betmgm / U +110 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 91% over
O 4.5 82% over
O 5.5 70% over
O 6.5 56% over
O 7.5 42% under
O 8.5 29% under
O 9.5 19% under
O 10.5 12% under
O 11.5 7% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Ryan Johnson LAA starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +122 fanduel / U -146 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 51% over
O 5.5 34% over
O 6.5 21% over
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
MIA at ARI Sep 15, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJanson Junk MIA starter / away
Projected K 2.6 Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -125 bovada / U +105 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 2.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 73% over
O 2.5 48% over
O 3.5 27% over
O 4.5 13% under
O 5.5 6% under
O 6.5 2% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Michael Soroka ARI starter / home
Projected K 3.4 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +135 betonlineag / U -164 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 26%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85% over
O 2.5 65% over
O 3.5 44% over
O 4.5 26% over
O 5.5 14% over
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.