Ranked picks with source labels.

ATL 31-15 vs BOS 18-27, model and market align (60.2% vs 59.1%). Bello's missing season stats suggest data issue; Holmes has only 5.0 IP across 10...

Model at 58.6% on CHC aligns with market's 54.7% implied. Cubs' superior 29-17 record vs CHW's 23-22 supports the pick. Model's 9.63 total signific...

Paul Skenes shows 0.2 IP and 67.50 ERA (likely 1 ER in emergency appearance). Wheeler has null stats. Both pitcher profiles are unreliable. Model p...

Kirby's 1.50 ERA in 60 IP is elite; Giolito has missing stats. T-Mobile Park (PF 0.855) suppresses runs heavily. Model total 8.92 vs market 7.5 is...

Model disagrees with market by 11.7pp favoring DET, but TOR has massive offensive comparison (4.0 vs 2.5 RPG, .786 vs .582 OPS). Gausman's 1.50 ERA...

Model sees TEX at 57% vs market 52%, modest comparison. Daikin Park factor 0.81 is extreme pitcher park—model total 9.33 runs overstates offense po...

Model leans WSN 53.4% but market favors BAL at 53.8%. BAL offense is ice-cold at 3.4 RPG over 46 games, yet WSN's Mikolas has a 7.20 ERA in limited...

Ober's 4.0 IP with 6.75 ERA is too small to trust; Gasser has null season stats entirely. Model picks MIN despite worse record and worse offense—te...

Model sees coin flip (50.6%), market has TBR at 59.2%. Model's 9.12 total vs market 7.0 is a 2+ run gap—huge structural miss. Rasmussen's 1.8 ERA i...