Ranked picks with source labels.

Model at 64.2% vs market 60.8% on PHI is modest disagreement. Phillips' 1.86 ERA in 48 IP is likely regressing; Luzardo's 4.35 ERA more sustainable...

Model has WSN 62.4% vs market 55.8%, a 6.6pp gap favoring home. Both pitchers solid (Griffin 3.46 ERA, Wacha 3.58 ERA in 78-88 IP). WSN offense muc...

Model at 62.4% vs market 63.5% is tight convergence on CHC. COL's 6.1 RPG inflated by Coors home splits; road offense likely weaker. Both starters...

Model at 62.4% vs market 58.6% on SEA — modest comparison. Gilbert's 3.62 ERA over 79.7 IP is trustworthy; Young's 3.04 in 56.3 IP is solid but les...

Model favors CIN at 55.5% vs market 47.1%, an 8.4pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. Singer's 5.61 ERA in 61 IP is stable mediocrity; Seng...