Ranked picks with source labels.

Market implies 65.9% on CLE vs model 61.3%; I side with the market here given Messick's 2.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 142 IP against a SFG offense at...

Market's 65.7% on TBR looks better calibrated than the model's 57%; Rasmussen (2.78 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 9.26 K/9) against Scherzer (6.59 ERA, 1.46 WHIP...

Both starters are TBD with fallback stats, so the 2.83 vs 3.91 ERA gap is not attributable to actual pitchers. No market odds available, so no anch...

Market has CIN at 57.9% while the model gives STL 54.4% — a large gap, and the pitching matchup favors the market: Burns at 2.47 ERA, 10.37 K/9, 1....