CC at MC

Model at 62.5% and market at 62.9% agree on NYM, so no comparison either way; the side is defensible on Thornton's 2.93 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 61.1...

Model (60.9%) and market (59.1%) essentially agree on Philadelphia, so there is no comparison to exploit. Wheeler's 10.63 K/9 and 1.09 WHIP is the...

Both starters under 3.50 ERA, with Glasnow's 0.81 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 in 51.7 IP the sharper profile. Model's 8.42 total sits 1.4 runs above the 7.0...

Market implies 68.5% on Seattle vs the model's 60.4%; here I side with the market. Springs' 6.37 ERA and 1.50 WHIP is a clear downgrade from Kirby'...

Market is pick'em but Tampa Bay carries an 84-57 record and the better arm: Rasmussen's 2.95 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 146.1 IP outclasses deGrom's 4....

Model's 8.55-run total sits over two runs above the 6.5 market line, which looks like a structural miss: Messick carries a 2.46 ERA and 1.02 WHIP,...

Model has BAL at 54% against a market implying 42.3% — an 11-point gap I can't justify. Gray (2.82 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.0 K/9) is a clear class compar...

Market at 62.9% for PIT looks better calibrated than the model's 53.4%. Ashcraft (3.59 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.2 K/9) is the clear comparison over Kikuch...

Market is essentially pick'em (home -108/away +100) despite NYY's 80-61 record, 5.2 RPG and .692 OPS versus San Diego's 3.3 RPG and .547 OPS. Takin...