MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-09-05 / 15 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-09-05
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+142
NYMNew York Mets-171
Pick Probability63%NYM moneyline
SFGAnthony MolinaConfirmed
NYMZac ThorntonConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.5
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
NYM / standard confidence / Rank 8 / Agrees with model

Model at 62.5% and market at 62.9% agree on NYM, so no comparison either way; the side is defensible on Thornton's 2.93 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 61.1...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
ATLAtlanta Braves+138
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-165
Pick Probability61%PHI moneyline
ATLMartín PérezConfirmed
PHIZack WheelerConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.1
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
PHI / lean confidence / Rank 9 / Agrees with model

Model (60.9%) and market (59.1%) essentially agree on Philadelphia, so there is no comparison to exploit. Wheeler's 10.63 K/9 and 1.09 WHIP is the...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
WSNWashington Nationals+155
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-188
Pick Probability60%LAD moneyline
WSNCade CavalliConfirmed
LADTyler GlasnowConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.0
Projected Total8.5
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
LAD / standard confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

Both starters under 3.50 ERA, with Glasnow's 0.81 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 in 51.7 IP the sharper profile. Model's 8.42 total sits 1.4 runs above the 7.0...

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
OAKOakland Athletics+196
SEASeattle Mariners-238
Pick Probability60%SEA moneyline
OAKJeffrey SpringsConfirmed
SEAGeorge KirbyConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.6
AI Analyst
SEA / standard confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Market implies 68.5% on Seattle vs the model's 60.4%; here I side with the market. Springs' 6.37 ERA and 1.50 WHIP is a clear downgrade from Kirby'...

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
STLSt. Louis Cardinals-128
COLColorado Rockies+108
Pick Probability57%STL moneyline
STLMatthew LiberatoreConfirmed
COLMason AdamsConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total10.5
Projected Total11.0
Margin Context0.9
Model pick
STL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-09-05
Rank#1
WSN at LADWashington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers
AI Analyst PickLADstandard confidence
Agrees with modelLAD / 60%Model pick probability

Both starters under 3.50 ERA, with Glasnow's 0.81 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 in 51.7 IP the sharper profile. Model's 8.42 total sits 1.4 runs above the 7.0 market line despite...

Rank#2
TBR at TEXTampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
AI Analyst PickTBRstandard confidence
Agrees with modelTBR / 55%Model pick probability

Market is pick'em but Tampa Bay carries an 84-57 record and the better arm: Rasmussen's 2.95 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 146.1 IP outclasses deGrom's 4.00 ERA, even with de...

Rank#3
OAK at SEAOakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
AI Analyst PickSEAstandard confidence
Agrees with modelSEA / 60%Model pick probability

Market implies 68.5% on Seattle vs the model's 60.4%; here I side with the market. Springs' 6.37 ERA and 1.50 WHIP is a clear downgrade from Kirby's 4.19, and T-Mobile...

Rank#4
LAA at PITLos Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Pirates
AI Analyst PickPITstandard confidence
Agrees with modelPIT / 53%Model pick probability

Market at 62.9% for PIT looks better calibrated than the model's 53.4%. Ashcraft (3.59 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.2 K/9) is the clear comparison over Kikuchi (5.65 ERA, 1.49 WH...

Rank#5
DET at CLEDetroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
AI Analyst PickCLEstandard confidence
Agrees with modelCLE / 54%Model pick probability

Model's 8.55-run total sits over two runs above the 6.5 market line, which looks like a structural miss: Messick carries a 2.46 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, Detroit is scoring 3...

Rank#6
NYY at SDPNew York Yankees at San Diego Padres
AI Analyst PickNYYstandard confidence
Agrees with modelNYY / 50%Model pick probability

Market is essentially pick'em (home -108/away +100) despite NYY's 80-61 record, 5.2 RPG and .692 OPS versus San Diego's 3.3 RPG and .547 OPS. Taking the better offense...

Rank#7
BOS at BALBoston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
AI Analyst PickBOSstandard confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelBAL / 54%Model pick probability

Model has BAL at 54% against a market implying 42.3% — an 11-point gap I can't justify. Gray (2.82 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.0 K/9) is a clear class comparison over Bassitt (4...

Rank#8
SFG at NYMSan Francisco Giants at New York Mets
AI Analyst PickNYMstandard confidence
Agrees with modelNYM / 63%Model pick probability

Model at 62.5% and market at 62.9% agree on NYM, so no comparison either way; the side is defensible on Thornton's 2.93 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 61.1 IP. Molina has only...

Rank#9
ATL at PHIAtlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
AI Analyst PickPHIlean confidence
Agrees with modelPHI / 61%Model pick probability

Model (60.9%) and market (59.1%) essentially agree on Philadelphia, so there is no comparison to exploit. Wheeler's 10.63 K/9 and 1.09 WHIP is the best arm in the game...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

15 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+142
NYMNew York Mets-171
Pick Probability63%NYM moneyline
SFGAnthony MolinaConfirmed
NYMZac ThorntonConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.5
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
NYM / standard confidence / Rank 8 / Agrees with model

Model at 62.5% and market at 62.9% agree on NYM, so no comparison either way; the side is defensible on Thornton's 2.93 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 61.1...

MLBMoneyline
Open
ATLAtlanta Braves+138
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-165
Pick Probability61%PHI moneyline
ATLMartín PérezConfirmed
PHIZack WheelerConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.1
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
PHI / lean confidence / Rank 9 / Agrees with model

Model (60.9%) and market (59.1%) essentially agree on Philadelphia, so there is no comparison to exploit. Wheeler's 10.63 K/9 and 1.09 WHIP is the...

MLBMoneyline
Open
WSNWashington Nationals+155
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-188
Pick Probability60%LAD moneyline
WSNCade CavalliConfirmed
LADTyler GlasnowConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.0
Projected Total8.5
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
LAD / standard confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

Both starters under 3.50 ERA, with Glasnow's 0.81 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 in 51.7 IP the sharper profile. Model's 8.42 total sits 1.4 runs above the 7.0...

MLBMoneyline
Open
OAKOakland Athletics+196
SEASeattle Mariners-238
Pick Probability60%SEA moneyline
OAKJeffrey SpringsConfirmed
SEAGeorge KirbyConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.6
AI Analyst
SEA / standard confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Market implies 68.5% on Seattle vs the model's 60.4%; here I side with the market. Springs' 6.37 ERA and 1.50 WHIP is a clear downgrade from Kirby'...

MLBMoneyline
Open
STLSt. Louis Cardinals-128
COLColorado Rockies+108
Pick Probability57%STL moneyline
STLMatthew LiberatoreConfirmed
COLMason AdamsConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total10.5
Projected Total11.0
Margin Context0.9
Model pick
STL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHCChicago Cubs-130
MIAMiami Marlins+110
Pick Probability55%CHC moneyline
CHCJavier AssadConfirmed
MIARyan GustoConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.5
Margin Context0.6
Model pick
CHC moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
TBRTampa Bay Rays-108
TEXTexas Rangers-110
Pick Probability55%TBR moneyline
TBRDrew RasmussenConfirmed
TEXJacob deGromConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.0
Projected Total8.5
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
TBR / standard confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

Market is pick'em but Tampa Bay carries an 84-57 record and the better arm: Rasmussen's 2.95 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 146.1 IP outclasses deGrom's 4....

MLBMoneyline
Open
DETDetroit Tigers+138
CLECleveland Guardians-162
Pick Probability54%CLE moneyline
DETFramber ValdezConfirmed
CLEParker MessickConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.0
Projected Total8.4
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
CLE / standard confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Model's 8.55-run total sits over two runs above the 6.5 market line, which looks like a structural miss: Messick carries a 2.46 ERA and 1.02 WHIP,...

MLBMoneyline
Open
BOSBoston Red Sox-126
BALBaltimore Orioles+108
Pick Probability54%BAL moneyline
BOSSonny GrayConfirmed
BALChris BassittConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.1
AI Analyst
BOS / standard confidence / Rank 7 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has BAL at 54% against a market implying 42.3% — an 11-point gap I can't justify. Gray (2.82 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.0 K/9) is a clear class compar...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MINMinnesota Twins+104
CHWChicago White Sox-123
Pick Probability54%CHW moneyline
MINTaj BradleyConfirmed
CHWAnthony KayConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.2
Model pick
CHW moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
LAALos Angeles Angels+155
PITPittsburgh Pirates-186
Pick Probability53%PIT moneyline
LAAYusei KikuchiConfirmed
PITBraxton AshcraftConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context0.1
AI Analyst
PIT / standard confidence / Rank 4 / Agrees with model

Market at 62.9% for PIT looks better calibrated than the model's 53.4%. Ashcraft (3.59 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.2 K/9) is the clear comparison over Kikuch...

MLBMoneyline
Open
TORToronto Blue Jays-108
KCRKansas City Royals-110
Pick Probability53%KCR moneyline
TORMax ScherzerConfirmed
KCRSeth LugoConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.5
Projected Total10.0
Margin Context0.0
Model pick
KCR moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
MILMilwaukee Brewers-151
CINCincinnati Reds+130
Pick Probability51%MIL moneyline
MILDustin MayConfirmed
CINAndrew AbbottConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.6
Margin Context0.6
Model pick
MIL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
ARIArizona Diamondbacks-110
HOUHouston Astros-109
Pick Probability51%ARI moneyline
ARIBrandon PfaadtConfirmed
HOUEthan PeckoConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.5
Model pick
ARI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYYNew York Yankees+109
SDPSan Diego Padres-129
Pick Probability50%NYY moneyline
NYYCarlos RodónConfirmed
SDPRobbie RayConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.6
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
NYY / standard confidence / Rank 6 / Agrees with model

Market is essentially pick'em (home -108/away +100) despite NYY's 80-61 record, 5.2 RPG and .692 OPS versus San Diego's 3.3 RPG and .547 OPS. Takin...

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