TBR at PHI

Model has PHI at 64.2% against a pick'em market (50.2%), a 14-point gap, while backing the team with the worse record (87-73 vs 97-63) and far wors...

Model (61.2%) and market (63.3%) align on Seattle, so no real comparison on the side but the pick is defensible. Both offenses are scoring under 4...

Model's 54.5% on SFG versus market's 25.4% implied is a 29-point gap with no support: San Francisco is 65-95 at 3.3 RPG and .388 OPS against Blake...

Model has MIA at 54.5% against a market that implies 48.5%, and the case rests on Ralston, who has just 16.0 IP and a 4.50 ERA — too thin to trust....

Market implies 67.7% on CHW versus the model's 54.5% — here the market looks right. CHW's 6.4 RPG and .729 OPS against COL's 3.8 RPG and .531 OPS i...

ARI's starter is TBD with fallback stats, so the model's 53% on Arizona rests on an unresolved arm; market has San Diego a slight favorite at -110....

Model has WSN at 52.6% vs market 45.1% — a modest gap. Washington's .820 OPS and 4.8 RPG outpace NYM's .736/4.4, and Tong has just 25.7 IP with a 4...