MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-05-12 / 15 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-05-12
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+242
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-302
Pick Probability64%LAD moneyline
SFGAdrian Houser
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context1.6
AI Analyst
LAD / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Market has LAD at 73.5% vs model's 64%, a 9-point gap flagged as large disagreement. SFG's .388 OPS (41 games) is catastrophically bad, driving mar...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+129
OAKOakland Athletics-152
Pick Probability60%OAK moneyline
STLAndre Pallante
OAKJeffrey Springs
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
OAK / pass confidence / Rank 7

Away pitcher Pallante has null IP/ERA/K9/WHIP despite 10 starts marked—data integrity issue makes STL side unknowable. Springs has only 5.1 IP acro...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
NYYNew York Yankees-164
BALBaltimore Orioles+138
Pick Probability59%NYY moneyline
NYYWill Warren
BALTrevor Rogers
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context1.5
Model pick
NYY moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-146
BOSBoston Red Sox+124
Pick Probability59%PHI moneyline
PHIZack Wheeler
BOSJovani Morán
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.6
Model pick
PHI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
CHCChicago Cubs+102
ATLAtlanta Braves-120
Pick Probability59%CHC moneyline
CHCColin Rea
ATLGrant Holmes
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.1
AI Analyst
CHC / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Model favors CHC 58.6% vs market's 47.2% — an 11.4pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. ATL has better record (28-13) and offense (5.3 RPG,...

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-05-12
Rank#1
COL at PITColorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates
AI Analyst PickPITstrong confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelCOL / 53%Model pick probability

Model has COL 53% despite Pinnacle pricing PIT -319 (74% implied). PIT's 22-19 record and 5.8 RPG vs COL's 16-25/4.2 RPG/0.531 OPS supports market. Skenes' 0.2 IP/67.5...

Rank#2
SEA at HOUSeattle Mariners at Houston Astros
AI Analyst PickSEAstandard confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelHOU / 51%Model pick probability

Market favors SEA at 57.2% implied, model has HOU coinflip at 50.6%. Imai's 13.50 ERA in 2.2 IP is catastrophic small-sample noise; Woo's 3.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is early-s...

Rank#3
SFG at LADSan Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
AI Analyst PickLADlean confidence
Agrees with modelLAD / 64%Model pick probability

Market has LAD at 73.5% vs model's 64%, a 9-point gap flagged as large disagreement. SFG's .388 OPS (41 games) is catastrophically bad, driving market confidence. Yama...

Rank#4
KCR at CHWKansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
AI Analyst PickKCRlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelCHW / 58%Model pick probability

Model favors CHW 57.5% vs market's 45.8%. KCR's offense (.518 OPS) is league-worst but model's SHAP shows away_rolling_short_road_runs_allowed driving CHW pick—likely...

Rank#5
CHC at ATLChicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves
AI Analyst PickCHClean confidence
Agrees with modelCHC / 59%Model pick probability

Model favors CHC 58.6% vs market's 47.2% — an 11.4pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. ATL has better record (28-13) and offense (5.3 RPG, .789 OPS) yet model...

Rank#6
DET at NYMDetroit Tigers at New York Mets
AI Analyst PickNYMlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelDET / 52%Model pick probability

Market favors NYM at 57.6% vs model's 47.8% on DET—large disagreement flag fires. Both pitchers show concerning trends: Peralta's 7.20 ERA in 5.0 IP, Flaherty's 1.85 W...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

15 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+242
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-302
Pick Probability64%LAD moneyline
SFGAdrian Houser
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context1.6
AI Analyst
LAD / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Market has LAD at 73.5% vs model's 64%, a 9-point gap flagged as large disagreement. SFG's .388 OPS (41 games) is catastrophically bad, driving mar...

MLBMoneyline
Open
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+129
OAKOakland Athletics-152
Pick Probability60%OAK moneyline
STLAndre Pallante
OAKJeffrey Springs
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
OAK / pass confidence / Rank 7

Away pitcher Pallante has null IP/ERA/K9/WHIP despite 10 starts marked—data integrity issue makes STL side unknowable. Springs has only 5.1 IP acro...

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYYNew York Yankees-164
BALBaltimore Orioles+138
Pick Probability59%NYY moneyline
NYYWill Warren
BALTrevor Rogers
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context1.5
Model pick
NYY moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-146
BOSBoston Red Sox+124
Pick Probability59%PHI moneyline
PHIZack Wheeler
BOSJovani Morán
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.6
Model pick
PHI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHCChicago Cubs+102
ATLAtlanta Braves-120
Pick Probability59%CHC moneyline
CHCColin Rea
ATLGrant Holmes
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.1
AI Analyst
CHC / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Model favors CHC 58.6% vs market's 47.2% — an 11.4pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. ATL has better record (28-13) and offense (5.3 RPG,...

MLBMoneyline
Open
LAALos Angeles Angels+115
CLECleveland Guardians-136
Pick Probability58%CLE moneyline
LAAWalbert Ureña
CLESlade Cecconi
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.6
Model pick
CLE moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
SDPSan Diego Padres+110
MILMilwaukee Brewers-130
Pick Probability58%MIL moneyline
SDPBradgley Rodriguez
MILBrandon Sproat
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.6
Model pick
MIL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
KCRKansas City Royals-125
CHWChicago White Sox+105
Pick Probability58%CHW moneyline
KCRStephen Kolek
CHWErick Fedde
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
KCR / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model favors CHW 57.5% vs market's 45.8%. KCR's offense (.518 OPS) is league-worst but model's SHAP shows away_rolling_short_road_runs_allowed driv...

MLBMoneyline
Open
TBRTampa Bay Rays-130
TORToronto Blue Jays+110
Pick Probability56%TBR moneyline
TBRShane McClanahan
TORPatrick Corbin
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.8
Model pick
TBR moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
WSNWashington Nationals+122
CINCincinnati Reds-146
Pick Probability54%CIN moneyline
WSNMiles Mikolas
CINBrady Singer
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.1
Model pick
CIN moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+112
TEXTexas Rangers-132
Pick Probability54%TEX moneyline
ARIZac Gallen
TEXMacKenzie Gore
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.0
Model pick
TEX moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
COLColorado Rockies+270
PITPittsburgh Pirates-345
Pick Probability53%COL moneyline
COLMichael Lorenzen
PITPaul Skenes
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
PIT / strong confidence / Rank 1 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has COL 53% despite Pinnacle pricing PIT -319 (74% implied). PIT's 22-19 record and 5.8 RPG vs COL's 16-25/4.2 RPG/0.531 OPS supports market....

MLBMoneyline
Open
DETDetroit Tigers+125
NYMNew York Mets-151
Pick Probability52%DET moneyline
DETJack Flaherty
NYMFreddy Peralta
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
NYM / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Market favors NYM at 57.6% vs model's 47.8% on DET—large disagreement flag fires. Both pitchers show concerning trends: Peralta's 7.20 ERA in 5.0 I...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MIAMiami Marlins-104
MINMinnesota Twins-114
Pick Probability51%MIN moneyline
MIAEury Pérez
MINBailey Ober
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.2
Model pick
MIN moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
SEASeattle Mariners-151
HOUHouston Astros+127
Pick Probability51%HOU moneyline
SEABryan Woo
HOUTatsuya Imai
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
SEA / standard confidence / Rank 2 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Market favors SEA at 57.2% implied, model has HOU coinflip at 50.6%. Imai's 13.50 ERA in 2.2 IP is catastrophic small-sample noise; Woo's 3.00 ERA...

sharps.gg