MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-05-17 / 15 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-05-17
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
BOSBoston Red Sox+135
ATLAtlanta Braves-160
Pick Probability60%ATL moneyline
BOSBrayan Bello
ATLGrant Holmes
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
ATL / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

ATL 31-15 vs BOS 18-27, model and market align (60.2% vs 59.1%). Bello's missing season stats suggest data issue; Holmes has only 5.0 IP across 10...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
CHCChicago Cubs-135
CHWChicago White Sox+115
Pick Probability59%CHC moneyline
CHCColin Rea
CHWErick Fedde
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.6
Margin Context1.6
AI Analyst
CHC / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Agrees with model

Model at 58.6% on CHC aligns with market's 54.7% implied. Cubs' superior 29-17 record vs CHW's 23-22 supports the pick. Model's 9.63 total signific...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
ARIArizona Diamondbacks-152
COLColorado Rockies+128
Pick Probability59%ARI moneyline
ARIMichael Soroka
COLMichael Lorenzen
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.5
Projected Total9.8
Margin Context1.5
Model pick
ARI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-140
LAALos Angeles Angels+120
Pick Probability59%LAD moneyline
LADRoki Sasaki
LAAGrayson Rodriguez
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.7
Model pick
LAD moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+116
PITPittsburgh Pirates-138
Pick Probability58%PIT moneyline
PHIZack Wheeler
PITPaul Skenes
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
PIT / pass confidence / Rank 9

Paul Skenes shows 0.2 IP and 67.50 ERA (likely 1 ER in emergency appearance). Wheeler has null stats. Both pitcher profiles are unreliable. Model p...

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-05-17
Rank#1
TOR at DETToronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers
AI Analyst PickTORstandard confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelDET / 58%Model pick probability

Model disagrees with market by 11.7pp favoring DET, but TOR has massive offensive comparison (4.0 vs 2.5 RPG, .786 vs .582 OPS). Gausman's 1.50 ERA and 16.5 K/9 over 6...

Rank#2
MIA at TBRMiami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays
AI Analyst PickTBRlean confidence
Agrees with modelTBR / 51%Model pick probability

Model sees coin flip (50.6%), market has TBR at 59.2%. Model's 9.12 total vs market 7.0 is a 2+ run gap—huge structural miss. Rasmussen's 1.8 ERA in tiny 5.0 IP sample...

Rank#3
TEX at HOUTexas Rangers at Houston Astros
AI Analyst PickTEXlean confidence
Agrees with modelTEX / 57%Model pick probability

Model sees TEX at 57% vs market 52%, modest comparison. Daikin Park factor 0.81 is extreme pitcher park—model total 9.33 runs overstates offense potential here. Eovald...

Rank#4
SDP at SEASan Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners
AI Analyst PickSEAlean confidence
Agrees with modelSEA / 58%Model pick probability

Kirby's 1.50 ERA in 60 IP is elite; Giolito has missing stats. T-Mobile Park (PF 0.855) suppresses runs heavily. Model total 8.92 vs market 7.5 is a 1.42-run gap—model...

Rank#5
BOS at ATLBoston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves
AI Analyst PickATLlean confidence
Agrees with modelATL / 60%Model pick probability

ATL 31-15 vs BOS 18-27, model and market align (60.2% vs 59.1%). Bello's missing season stats suggest data issue; Holmes has only 5.0 IP across 10 GS (0.5 IP/start ave...

Rank#6
CHC at CHWChicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox
AI Analyst PickCHClean confidence
Agrees with modelCHC / 59%Model pick probability

Model at 58.6% on CHC aligns with market's 54.7% implied. Cubs' superior 29-17 record vs CHW's 23-22 supports the pick. Model's 9.63 total significantly exceeds market...

Rank#7
BAL at WSNBaltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals
AI Analyst PickBALlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelWSN / 54%Model pick probability

Model leans WSN 53.4% but market favors BAL at 53.8%. BAL offense is ice-cold at 3.4 RPG over 46 games, yet WSN's Mikolas has a 7.20 ERA in limited work. Young's missi...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

15 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
BOSBoston Red Sox+135
ATLAtlanta Braves-160
Pick Probability60%ATL moneyline
BOSBrayan Bello
ATLGrant Holmes
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
ATL / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

ATL 31-15 vs BOS 18-27, model and market align (60.2% vs 59.1%). Bello's missing season stats suggest data issue; Holmes has only 5.0 IP across 10...

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHCChicago Cubs-135
CHWChicago White Sox+115
Pick Probability59%CHC moneyline
CHCColin Rea
CHWErick Fedde
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.6
Margin Context1.6
AI Analyst
CHC / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Agrees with model

Model at 58.6% on CHC aligns with market's 54.7% implied. Cubs' superior 29-17 record vs CHW's 23-22 supports the pick. Model's 9.63 total signific...

MLBMoneyline
Open
ARIArizona Diamondbacks-152
COLColorado Rockies+128
Pick Probability59%ARI moneyline
ARIMichael Soroka
COLMichael Lorenzen
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.5
Projected Total9.8
Margin Context1.5
Model pick
ARI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-140
LAALos Angeles Angels+120
Pick Probability59%LAD moneyline
LADRoki Sasaki
LAAGrayson Rodriguez
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.7
Model pick
LAD moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+116
PITPittsburgh Pirates-138
Pick Probability58%PIT moneyline
PHIZack Wheeler
PITPaul Skenes
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
PIT / pass confidence / Rank 9

Paul Skenes shows 0.2 IP and 67.50 ERA (likely 1 ER in emergency appearance). Wheeler has null stats. Both pitcher profiles are unreliable. Model p...

MLBMoneyline
Open
CINCincinnati Reds+140
CLECleveland Guardians-165
Pick Probability58%CLE moneyline
CINBrady Singer
CLEGavin Williams
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.6
Model pick
CLE moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+128
OAKOakland Athletics-150
Pick Probability58%OAK moneyline
SFGAdrian Houser
OAKJeffrey Springs
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.6
Model pick
OAK moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
SDPSan Diego Padres+136
SEASeattle Mariners-162
Pick Probability58%SEA moneyline
SDPLucas Giolito
SEAGeorge Kirby
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
SEA / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Agrees with model

Kirby's 1.50 ERA in 60 IP is elite; Giolito has missing stats. T-Mobile Park (PF 0.855) suppresses runs heavily. Model total 8.92 vs market 7.5 is...

MLBMoneyline
Open
TORToronto Blue Jays-130
DETDetroit Tigers+110
Pick Probability58%DET moneyline
TORKevin Gausman
DETJack Flaherty
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
TOR / standard confidence / Rank 1 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model disagrees with market by 11.7pp favoring DET, but TOR has massive offensive comparison (4.0 vs 2.5 RPG, .786 vs .582 OPS). Gausman's 1.50 ERA...

MLBMoneyline
Open
TEXTexas Rangers-120
HOUHouston Astros+100
Pick Probability57%TEX moneyline
TEXNathan Eovaldi
HOUPeter Lambert
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
TEX / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Model sees TEX at 57% vs market 52%, modest comparison. Daikin Park factor 0.81 is extreme pitcher park—model total 9.33 runs overstates offense po...

MLBMoneyline
Open
BALBaltimore Orioles-130
WSNWashington Nationals+110
Pick Probability54%WSN moneyline
BALBrandon Young
WSNRichard Lovelady
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.1
AI Analyst
BAL / lean confidence / Rank 7 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model leans WSN 53.4% but market favors BAL at 53.8%. BAL offense is ice-cold at 3.4 RPG over 46 games, yet WSN's Mikolas has a 7.20 ERA in limited...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MILMilwaukee Brewers-120
MINMinnesota Twins+103
Pick Probability54%MIN moneyline
MILRobert Gasser
MINBailey Ober
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.1
AI Analyst
MIN / pass confidence / Rank 8

Ober's 4.0 IP with 6.75 ERA is too small to trust; Gasser has null season stats entirely. Model picks MIN despite worse record and worse offense—te...

MLBMoneyline
Open
KCRKansas City Royals-102
STLSt. Louis Cardinals-114
Pick Probability54%STL moneyline
KCRStephen Kolek
STLAndre Pallante
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.0
Model pick
STL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
MIAMiami Marlins+135
TBRTampa Bay Rays-160
Pick Probability51%TBR moneyline
MIAEury Pérez
TBRDrew Rasmussen
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
TBR / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

Model sees coin flip (50.6%), market has TBR at 59.2%. Model's 9.12 total vs market 7.0 is a 2+ run gap—huge structural miss. Rasmussen's 1.8 ERA i...

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYYNew York Yankees-106
NYMNew York Mets-113
Pick Probability51%NYM moneyline
NYYElmer Rodríguez
NYMFreddy Peralta
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.2
Model pick
NYM moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.