MLB moneyline board.

Model has MIL 60.8%, market 75.2% — massive 14.4pp gap flags structural miss. Misiorowski's 1.57 ERA over 115 IP with 13.54 K/9 is elite, not noise. Freeland's 7.28 ER...

Model picks WSN 54.7%, market has ARI -112 (52.8%). Mikolas' 5.6 ERA in 98 IP is real; Drake's 1.8 ERA in 5 IP is noise. ARI's superior record (55-50 vs 53-52) and WSN...

Model picks CLE 54.4%, market implies TBR 53.3% — coin flip. Both starters sub-3.50 ERA, ace matchup argues under. Model's 8.56 total vs market 7.0 is structural: roll...

Model has TEX at 54% vs market's 50.2% — essentially a coin flip. Gilbert's 3.38 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 120 IP is more proven than deGrom's 105 IP return. Model total...

Model and market both see a coin flip (54.4% vs 54.8% CHC). Taillon's 5.38 ERA in 72 IP is concerning but PIT's offense is weaker (5.0 RPG vs CHC's 6.3). Model total 9...

Model sees a coin flip (TOR 50.3%) while market leans BOS (55.6% implied). TOR's 2.7 RPG offense is historically weak despite strong .786 OPS, suggesting run-scoring s...