MLB moneyline board.

Market implies 66.8% for TEX while the model sits at 57.6% — a 9-point gap I side with the market on. deGrom's 10.98 K/9 and 1.18 WHIP against an Oakland offense at .5...

Market (-188, 64%) is slightly stronger on ATL than the model's 60.4%, and the 82-55 Braves at home behind Elder (3.95 ERA, 1.24 WHIP over 143.2 IP) against a 56-81 cl...

Model (62.5%) and market (61.4%) agree on Tampa Bay, and the pitching comparison is clear: Seymour has 107 IP with a 1.15 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 versus Stock's 7.40 ERA and...

Model has CIN at 50.2% while the market implies 42.4%, and the starter gap favors San Diego: King at 3.23 ERA / 1.17 WHIP over 156 IP versus Singer at 4.72 ERA / 1.42...

Model at 60.4% on a 52-85 LAA club versus a 78-59 NYY team scoring 5.7 R/G is a 17-point gap from the market's 43.6%, and it picks the worse record and worse offense....

Model has ARI at 57.6% vs market's 47.7% implied — a ~10pt gap built on a fallback profile for a TBD Arizona starter, so the 5.08 ERA/1.48 WHIP line may not reflect wh...

Essentially a pick'em: model has WSN at 50.6%, market implies 48.3%, so no meaningful comparison either way. WSN's 4.4 RPG and .820 OPS comparison Miami's 3.5 RPG and...