MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-06-23 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
HOU at TOR Jun 23, 2:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastPeter Lambert HOU starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -140 fanduel / U +115 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 43% over
O 5.5 27% over
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Shane Bieber TOR starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +106 draftkings / U -122 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% under
O 3.5 58% under
O 4.5 39% under
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
KCR at TBR Jun 23, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLuinder Avila KCR starter / away
Projected K 3.5 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +130 bovada / U -134 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85% over
O 2.5 67% over
O 3.5 46% over
O 4.5 27% over
O 5.5 15% over
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Shane McClanahan TBR starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +125 betonlineag / U -145 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% under
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
SEA at PIT Jun 23, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGeorge Kirby SEA starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +130 betonlineag / U -150 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 53% over
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Mitch Keller PIT starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -105 betmgm / U -110 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 48% under
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
TEX at MIA Jun 23, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCal Quantrill TEX starter / away
Projected K 2.7 Actual 1 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 74% under
O 2.5 50% under
O 3.5 28% under
O 4.5 14% under
O 5.5 6% under
O 6.5 2% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Sandy Alcantara MIA starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +126 fanduel / U -146 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 54% under
O 5.5 37% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
NYY at DET Jun 23, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCarlos Rodón NYY starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -140 betmgm / U +121 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 57% over
O 5.5 40% under
O 6.5 26% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Casey Mize DET starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 fanduel / U -121 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% over
O 5.5 38% over
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
PHI at WSN Jun 23, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJesús Luzardo PHI starter / away
Projected K 5.7 Actual 13 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +120 bovada / U -150 fanatics 4 books at this line
Model over 6.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 66% over
O 5.5 49% over
O 6.5 34% over
O 7.5 22% over
O 8.5 13% over
O 9.5 7% over
O 10.5 4% over
O 11.5 2% over
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 13 strikeouts.
PJ Poulin WSN starter / home
Projected K 1.6 Actual 1 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 49% under
O 2.5 23% under
O 3.5 9% under
O 4.5 3% under
O 5.5 1% under
O 6.5 0% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
CHC at NYM Jun 23, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastEdward Cabrera CHC starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -135 bovada / U +111 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% over
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Kodai Senga NYM starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -124 fanduel / U +102 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 63% over
O 4.5 45% over
O 5.5 28% over
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
MIL at CIN Jun 23, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrandon Sproat MIL starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 10 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -118 betrivers / U +100 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 33% over
O 6.5 20% over
O 7.5 11% over
O 8.5 5% over
O 9.5 3% over
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Nick Lodolo CIN starter / home
Projected K 5.1 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -156 betonlineag / U +136 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 56% over
O 5.5 40% over
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
LAD at MIN Jun 23, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJustin Wrobleski LAD starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +107 betrivers / U -122 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% under
O 4.5 37% under
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Kendry Rojas MIN starter / home
Projected K 2.6 Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -141 betrivers / U +107 betrivers 1 book at this line
Model over 2.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 74% over
O 2.5 49% over
O 3.5 28% over
O 4.5 13% under
O 5.5 6% under
O 6.5 2% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
CLE at CHW Jun 23, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastParker Messick CLE starter / away
Projected K 5.4 Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -120 betmgm / U +110 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 45% over
O 6.5 30% over
O 7.5 18% over
O 8.5 11% over
O 9.5 6% over
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Sean Burke CHW starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -140 betmgm / U +135 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 33% over
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
ARI at STL Jun 23, 5:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastEduardo Rodriguez ARI starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -143 draftkings / U +120 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 58% over
O 4.5 39% over
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Kyle Leahy STL starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -130 betmgm / U +114 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 56% under
O 4.5 38% under
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
BOS at COL Jun 23, 6:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSonny Gray BOS starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 11 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -130 betonlineag / U +122 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% over
O 5.5 25% over
O 6.5 14% over
O 7.5 7% over
O 8.5 3% over
O 9.5 1% over
O 10.5 1% over
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
Sean Sullivan COL starter / home Thin data
Projected K 3.2 Actual 3 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 83% over
O 2.5 62% over
O 3.5 40% under
O 4.5 23% under
O 5.5 12% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
BAL at LAA Jun 23, 7:38 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShane Baz BAL starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -110 bovada / U -103 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% over
O 5.5 43% under
O 6.5 29% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Ryan Johnson LAA starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +116 fanduel / U -139 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 47% over
O 5.5 31% over
O 6.5 18% over
O 7.5 10% over
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
ATL at SDP Jun 23, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJR Ritchie ATL starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +130 draftkings / U -149 betonlineag 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% over
O 5.5 25% over
O 6.5 14% over
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Wandy Peralta SDP starter / home
Projected K 1.6 Actual 2 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 46% over
O 2.5 21% under
O 3.5 8% under
O 4.5 2% under
O 5.5 1% under
O 6.5 0% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
OAK at SFG Jun 23, 7:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAaron Civale OAK starter / away
Projected K 3.4 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +120 betmgm / U -120 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 84% over
O 2.5 65% over
O 3.5 43% over
O 4.5 25% over
O 5.5 13% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Robbie Ray SFG starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +132 fanduel / U -155 draftkings 3 books at this line
Model over 6.5 16%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 43% over
O 5.5 27% over
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.