MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-07-21 / 26 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
LAD at PHI Jul 21, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJustin Wrobleski LAD starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 betmgm / U -110 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 54% over
O 5.5 37% over
O 6.5 23% over
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Zack Wheeler PHI starter / home
Projected K 6.5 Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -125 bovada / U +100 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 88% over
O 4.5 77% over
O 5.5 63% over
O 6.5 48% over
O 7.5 34% over
O 8.5 22% over
O 9.5 14% under
O 10.5 8% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
MIN at CLE Jul 21, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKendry Rojas MIN starter / away
Projected K 2.8 Actual 2 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 77% over
O 2.5 53% under
O 3.5 31% under
O 4.5 16% under
O 5.5 7% under
O 6.5 3% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Parker Messick CLE starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 fanatics / U -115 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 56% over
O 5.5 39% over
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
TBR at TOR Jul 21, 5:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDrew Rasmussen TBR starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -114 betonlineag / U -101 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% over
O 4.5 45% over
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Kevin Gausman TOR starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +110 betonlineag / U -126 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% under
O 2.5 90% under
O 3.5 79% under
O 4.5 64% under
O 5.5 48% under
O 6.5 33% under
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
SDP at ATL Jul 21, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastWalker Buehler SDP starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -140 betmgm / U +130 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 58% under
O 4.5 39% under
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Reynaldo López ATL starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 betrivers / U -143 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% over
O 5.5 25% over
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
NYM at MIL Jul 21, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastZac Thornton NYM starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +130 fanatics / U -138 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% under
O 3.5 61% under
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Brandon Sproat MIL starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -157 draftkings / U +136 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% under
O 5.5 43% under
O 6.5 29% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
SFG at KCR Jul 21, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTyler Mahle SFG starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +132 fanduel / U -149 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 55% over
O 4.5 36% under
O 5.5 21% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Luinder Avila KCR starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -141 betrivers / U +131 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% over
O 4.5 34% over
O 5.5 20% over
O 6.5 10% over
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
CHW at TEX Jul 21, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNoah Schultz CHW starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +115 bovada / U -135 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% under
O 3.5 59% under
O 4.5 40% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Kumar Rocker TEX starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -135 betmgm / U +121 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 32% over
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
DET at CHC Jul 21, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastFramber Valdez DET starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -121 betrivers / U +110 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% under
O 2.5 79% under
O 3.5 61% under
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
David Peterson CHC starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 betmgm / U -122 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 46% under
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
MIA at HOU Jul 21, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTyler Phillips MIA starter / away
Projected K 3.4 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +110 draftkings / U -130 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 84% over
O 2.5 65% under
O 3.5 44% under
O 4.5 26% under
O 5.5 13% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Tatsuya Imai HOU starter / home
Projected K 5.1 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 betrivers / U -139 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 56% over
O 5.5 39% over
O 6.5 25% over
O 7.5 15% over
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
WSN at COL Jul 21, 6:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCarson Palmquist WSN starter / away
Projected K 3.0 Actual 2 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 80% over
O 2.5 58% under
O 3.5 36% under
O 4.5 19% under
O 5.5 9% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Michael Lorenzen COL starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +110 betonlineag / U -120 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% over
O 4.5 34% over
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
STL at LAA Jul 21, 7:38 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMatthew Liberatore STL starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +126 fanduel / U -144 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 57% over
O 5.5 40% over
O 6.5 26% over
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Walbert Urena LAA starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +125 betmgm / U -156 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% over
O 5.5 39% under
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
CIN at SEA Jul 21, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastChase Burns CIN starter / away
Projected K 6.4 Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -157 betrivers / U +140 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 87% over
O 4.5 75% over
O 5.5 60% over
O 6.5 45% under
O 7.5 32% under
O 8.5 21% under
O 9.5 12% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Luis Castillo SEA starter / home Thin data
Projected K 4.1 Actual 3 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 58% under
O 4.5 39% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
OAK at ARI Jul 21, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJack Perkins OAK starter / away
Projected K 3.7 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +105 bovada / U -122 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 32%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 51% over
O 4.5 32% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Kohl Drake ARI starter / home Thin data
Projected K 3.5 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -130 betonlineag / U +112 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 67% over
O 3.5 46% over
O 4.5 28% over
O 5.5 15% under
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.