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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-07-20 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
MIN at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Joe RyanMIN starter / away
Projected K6.6Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -118 fanduel / U +110 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 6.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%under
O 4.578%under
O 5.564%under
O 6.549%under
O 7.535%under
O 8.523%under
O 9.515%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Tanner BibeeCLE starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 bovada / U +107 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

PIT at NYY / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / away
Projected K6.3Actual 2 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -114 betrivers / U +103 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%under
O 3.586%under
O 4.574%under
O 5.559%under
O 6.544%under
O 7.531%under
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Ryan WeathersNYY starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +107 betrivers / U -108 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 6.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%under
O 6.535%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

TBR at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Nick MartinezTBR starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +140 betonlineag / U -160 fanatics5 books at this line
Model over 3.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%under
O 2.566%under
O 3.544%under
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Dylan CeaseTOR starter / home
Projected K7.9Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +115 betrivers / U -135 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 7.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.595%over
O 4.588%over
O 5.579%over
O 6.566%over
O 7.553%under
O 8.540%under
O 9.528%under
O 10.519%under
O 11.512%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

LAD at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Emmet SheehanLAD starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -122 fanduel / U +100 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.541%over
O 6.526%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +125 betonlineag / U -142 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 6.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.554%over
O 6.539%over
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

BAL at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Shane BazBAL starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 fanatics / U -154 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Payton TolleBOS starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +100 betmgm / U -120 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 6.527%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.527%over
O 7.516%over
O 8.59%over
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

SDP at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
JP SearsSDP starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -145 betmgm / U +124 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Bryce ElderATL starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -148 betrivers / U +130 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

NYM at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Freddy PeraltaNYM starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +112 draftkings / U -130 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / home
Projected K9.3Actual 6 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O +115 bovada / U -134 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 8.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.598%over
O 4.594%over
O 5.589%over
O 6.580%under
O 7.570%under
O 8.558%under
O 9.545%under
O 10.534%under
O 11.524%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

SFG at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Trevor McDonaldSFG starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +118 fanduel / U -146 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%under
O 4.527%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Michael WachaKCR starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 bovada / U -115 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

CHW at TEX / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Erick FeddeCHW starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +116 betrivers / U -138 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.563%over
O 3.541%over
O 4.523%over
O 5.512%over
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Jacob deGromTEX starter / home
Projected K7.2Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -146 fanduel / U +120 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 6.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.592%over
O 4.583%over
O 5.571%over
O 6.557%under
O 7.543%under
O 8.530%under
O 9.520%under
O 10.513%under
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

DET at CHC / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jack FlahertyDET starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 betrivers / U -119 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jameson TaillonCHC starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -148 betrivers / U +136 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 3.563%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

MIA at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Janson JunkMIA starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -103 betrivers / U +110 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%under
O 4.535%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Ronel BlancoHOU starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 8 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -159 betonlineag / U +128 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.570%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.513%over
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

WSN at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Andrew AlvarezWSN starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +116 betrivers / U +116 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%under
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Kyle FreelandCOL starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 betmgm / U -111 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

CIN at SEA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Andrew AbbottCIN starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -152 betrivers / U +125 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 4.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%over
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

George KirbySEA starter / home
Projected K6.3Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -125 bovada / U +105 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.560%over
O 6.545%under
O 7.531%under
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

OAK at ARI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jeffrey SpringsOAK starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +112 draftkings / U -120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%under
O 3.549%under
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Mitch BrattARI starter / home
Projected K3.1Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +125 betmgm / U -150 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.559%over
O 3.537%over
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

STL at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kyle LeahySTL starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -128 fanduel / U +120 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

José SorianoLAA starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -143 betrivers / U +130 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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