MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-07-19 / 32 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
CHW at TOR Jul 19, 10:15 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSean Burke CHW starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -104 draftkings / U -120 bovada 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 58% over
O 5.5 41% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Trey Yesavage TOR starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -153 draftkings / U +128 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% over
O 5.5 42% over
O 6.5 27% over
O 7.5 17% over
O 8.5 9% over
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
LAD at NYY Jul 19, 10:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastEmmet Sheehan LAD starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Did not start / void
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +101 draftkings / U -115 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96%
O 2.5 88%
O 3.5 75%
O 4.5 59%
O 5.5 42%
O 6.5 28%
O 7.5 17%
O 8.5 9%
O 9.5 5%
O 10.5 2%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Ryan Weathers NYY starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Did not start / void
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -102 fanduel / U -108 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96%
O 2.5 87%
O 3.5 73%
O 4.5 56%
O 5.5 39%
O 6.5 25%
O 7.5 15%
O 8.5 8%
O 9.5 4%
O 10.5 2%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
NYM at PHI Jul 19, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNolan McLean NYM starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +112 fanduel / U -134 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 29%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% over
O 5.5 44% over
O 6.5 29% over
O 7.5 18% over
O 8.5 10% over
O 9.5 5% over
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Alan Rangel PHI starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -110 betonlineag / U +106 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
TBR at BOS Jul 19, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShane McClanahan TBR starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -153 draftkings / U +124 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% under
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Sonny Gray BOS starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -130 fanatics / U +116 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 51% over
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
TEX at ATL Jul 19, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNathan Eovaldi TEX starter / away
Projected K 6.2 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -148 betrivers / U +118 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% under
O 3.5 85% under
O 4.5 72% under
O 5.5 57% under
O 6.5 42% under
O 7.5 28% under
O 8.5 18% under
O 9.5 11% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Grant Holmes ATL starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -115 bovada / U +101 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% under
O 3.5 66% under
O 4.5 47% under
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
PIT at CLE Jul 19, 11:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastPaul Skenes PIT starter / away
Projected K 5.9 Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -155 betmgm / U +130 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 69% over
O 5.5 54% over
O 6.5 39% over
O 7.5 26% over
O 8.5 16% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Joey Cantillo CLE starter / home
Projected K 6.8 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +120 betrivers / U -138 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 90% over
O 4.5 80% over
O 5.5 66% over
O 6.5 52% over
O 7.5 38% under
O 8.5 26% under
O 9.5 16% under
O 10.5 10% under
O 11.5 6% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
MIA at MIL Jul 19, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastEury Pérez MIA starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -164 fanduel / U +128 fanduel 3 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 59% over
O 5.5 42% over
O 6.5 28% over
O 7.5 17% over
O 8.5 9% over
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Robert Gasser MIL starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -110 betonlineag / U +105 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 54% over
O 5.5 37% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
SDP at KCR Jul 19, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGermán Márquez SDP starter / away
Projected K 3.3 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +120 betonlineag / U -136 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 84% over
O 2.5 64% under
O 3.5 42% under
O 4.5 25% under
O 5.5 13% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Noah Cameron KCR starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -115 fanduel / U -102 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% under
O 2.5 88% under
O 3.5 75% under
O 4.5 59% under
O 5.5 42% under
O 6.5 28% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
BAL at HOU Jul 19, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrandon Young BAL starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -103 draftkings / U -107 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% over
O 5.5 32% over
O 6.5 19% over
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Hunter Brown HOU starter / home
Projected K 6.2 Actual 4 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +120 betmgm / U -141 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 7.5 28%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 85% over
O 4.5 72% under
O 5.5 57% under
O 6.5 42% under
O 7.5 28% under
O 8.5 18% under
O 9.5 11% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
MIN at CHC Jul 19, 12:20 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastZebby Matthews MIN starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -113 betrivers / U -105 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% under
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Shota Imanaga CHC starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +118 betonlineag / U -129 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% under
O 5.5 42% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
CIN at COL Jul 19, 1:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastHunter Greene CIN starter / away
Projected K 6.0 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -133 betonlineag / U +121 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 70% over
O 5.5 54% over
O 6.5 39% over
O 7.5 26% under
O 8.5 16% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Ryan Feltner COL starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +123 betrivers / U -143 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 65% under
O 4.5 46% under
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
WSN at OAK Jul 19, 2:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastFoster Griffin WSN starter / away
Projected K 5.7 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +112 fanduel / U -136 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% under
O 3.5 80% under
O 4.5 66% under
O 5.5 49% under
O 6.5 34% under
O 7.5 22% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Jacob Lopez OAK starter / home
Projected K 3.5 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -124 draftkings / U +116 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 68% over
O 3.5 47% over
O 4.5 28% over
O 5.5 15% over
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
DET at LAA Jul 19, 2:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCasey Mize DET starter / away
Projected K 5.8 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -115 betmgm / U +110 betrivers 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 67% over
O 5.5 51% under
O 6.5 36% under
O 7.5 23% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Ryan Johnson LAA starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -118 fanduel / U +100 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% over
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
SFG at SEA Jul 19, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRobbie Ray SFG starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +106 fanduel / U -125 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 25%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% over
O 4.5 41% over
O 5.5 25% over
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Logan Gilbert SEA starter / home
Projected K 6.5 Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -115 bovada / U +105 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 88% over
O 4.5 76% over
O 5.5 62% over
O 6.5 47% over
O 7.5 33% over
O 8.5 22% over
O 9.5 14% over
O 10.5 8% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
STL at ARI Jul 19, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAndre Pallante STL starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +122 fanduel / U -140 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% under
O 4.5 33% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Eduardo Rodriguez ARI starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -143 betonlineag / U +125 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 57% under
O 4.5 38% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
LAD at NYY Jul 19, 5:20 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastWill Klein LAD starter / away
Projected K 2.3 Actual 1 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 67% under
O 2.5 41% under
O 3.5 21% under
O 4.5 9% under
O 5.5 3% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Ryan Yarbrough NYY starter / home
Projected K 3.4 Actual 1 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85% under
O 2.5 66% under
O 3.5 45% under
O 4.5 26% under
O 5.5 14% under
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.