MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-07-18 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betrivers fanatics
PIT at CLE Jul 18, 11:10 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJared Jones PIT starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 betmgm / U -138 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% over
O 5.5 33% over
O 6.5 20% over
O 7.5 11% over
O 8.5 6% over
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Gavin Williams CLE starter / home
Projected K 7.0 Actual 11 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +120 bovada / U -132 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 7.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 90% over
O 4.5 81% over
O 5.5 68% over
O 6.5 54% over
O 7.5 40% over
O 8.5 27% over
O 9.5 18% over
O 10.5 11% over
O 11.5 6% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
MIN at CHC Jul 18, 12:20 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTaj Bradley MIN starter / away
Projected K 5.7 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -140 fanduel / U +125 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 66% over
O 5.5 49% over
O 6.5 34% under
O 7.5 22% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Matthew Boyd CHC starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -153 draftkings / U +126 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% under
O 5.5 44% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
NYM at PHI Jul 18, 1:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSean Manaea NYM starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +128 betrivers / U -150 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 33% over
O 6.5 20% over
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Jesús Luzardo PHI starter / home
Projected K 7.1 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -145 fanatics / U +122 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 6.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 91% over
O 4.5 82% over
O 5.5 69% over
O 6.5 55% over
O 7.5 41% under
O 8.5 28% under
O 9.5 19% under
O 10.5 11% under
O 11.5 7% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
CHW at TOR Jul 18, 1:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDavis Martin CHW starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -117 draftkings / U -105 betmgm 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% over
O 4.5 34% over
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Shane Bieber TOR starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -132 draftkings / U +115 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% over
O 5.5 34% over
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CIN at COL Jul 18, 1:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRhett Lowder CIN starter / away
Projected K 3.5 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +123 betrivers / U -148 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 68% under
O 3.5 47% under
O 4.5 28% under
O 5.5 15% under
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Tomoyuki Sugano COL starter / home
Projected K 3.4 Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -162 betrivers / U +136 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 2.5 66%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85% over
O 2.5 66% over
O 3.5 44% under
O 4.5 26% under
O 5.5 14% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
MIA at MIL Jul 18, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMax Meyer MIA starter / away
Projected K 5.4 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -115 fanatics / U +108 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Shane Drohan MIL starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -138 fanduel / U +121 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 53% over
O 5.5 37% over
O 6.5 23% over
O 7.5 13% over
O 8.5 7% over
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
SDP at KCR Jul 18, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGriffin Canning SDP starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -120 fanatics / U +105 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% over
O 4.5 33% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Randy Dobnak KCR starter / home
Projected K 3.0 Actual 3 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 79% over
O 2.5 56% over
O 3.5 34% under
O 4.5 18% under
O 5.5 8% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
BAL at HOU Jul 18, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTrevor Rogers BAL starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +108 betrivers / U -120 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 63% over
O 4.5 44% over
O 5.5 28% over
O 6.5 16% over
O 7.5 8% over
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Spencer Arrighetti HOU starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -138 fanduel / U +115 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 79% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 48% over
O 6.5 33% under
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
TBR at BOS Jul 18, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastIan Seymour TBR starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -146 fanduel / U +135 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 51% under
O 5.5 35% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Patrick Sandoval BOS starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -105 draftkings / U -108 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% over
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
TEX at ATL Jul 18, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMacKenzie Gore TEX starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +106 fanduel / U -133 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 57% over
O 5.5 40% over
O 6.5 26% over
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Owen Murphy ATL starter / home Thin data
Projected K 3.6 Actual 2 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 69% under
O 3.5 48% under
O 4.5 30% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
STL at ARI Jul 18, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDustin May STL starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +130 betmgm / U -162 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 58% over
O 4.5 39% over
O 5.5 24% over
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Brandon Pfaadt ARI starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -110 fanatics / U -102 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% under
O 4.5 34% under
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
PIT at CLE Jul 18, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMason Montgomery PIT starter / away
Projected K 2.1 Actual 1 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 63% under
O 2.5 36% under
O 3.5 17% under
O 4.5 7% under
O 5.5 2% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Logan Allen CLE starter / home
Projected K 3.2 Actual 3 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 82% over
O 2.5 61% over
O 3.5 40% under
O 4.5 22% under
O 5.5 11% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
SFG at SEA Jul 18, 6:08 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLogan Webb SFG starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +105 betmgm / U -128 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Bryan Woo SEA starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -125 bovada / U +107 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 79% over
O 4.5 64% over
O 5.5 47% over
O 6.5 32% over
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
WSN at OAK Jul 18, 8:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastZack Littell WSN starter / away
Projected K 2.8 Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -120 bovada / U +110 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 2.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 76% over
O 2.5 52% over
O 3.5 31% over
O 4.5 15% under
O 5.5 7% under
O 6.5 3% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
J.T. Ginn OAK starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 fanatics / U -146 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% over
O 5.5 34% over
O 6.5 21% over
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
DET at LAA Jul 18, 8:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTarik Skubal DET starter / away
Projected K 7.4 Actual 9 K / Over 8.5
Best price at 8.5 8.5 O +105 betrivers / U -102 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 8.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 93% over
O 4.5 85% over
O 5.5 73% over
O 6.5 60% over
O 7.5 46% over
O 8.5 33% over
O 9.5 22% under
O 10.5 14% under
O 11.5 9% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Grayson Rodriguez LAA starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +130 betmgm / U -164 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% under
O 4.5 51% under
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.