MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-08-10 / 20 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
BOS at TOR Aug 10, 5:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSonny Gray BOS starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -132 fanduel / U +115 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 51% under
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Jameson Taillon TOR starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 betmgm / U -131 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% under
O 4.5 47% under
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
NYM at ATL Aug 10, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastChristian Scott NYM starter / away
Projected K 5.7 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -111 fanduel / U -105 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 66% over
O 5.5 50% over
O 6.5 35% under
O 7.5 22% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Bryce Elder ATL starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +102 fanduel / U -125 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 46% under
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
BAL at MIN Aug 10, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTrevor Rogers BAL starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 betonlineag / U +106 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% under
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Dean Kremer MIN starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +115 bovada / U -140 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 62% over
O 5.5 45% over
O 6.5 31% over
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
PHI at STL Aug 10, 5:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAndrew Painter PHI starter / away
Projected K 3.5 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +112 draftkings / U -136 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 67% over
O 3.5 46% over
O 4.5 28% over
O 5.5 15% over
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Hunter Dobbins STL starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +105 bovada / U -105 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 41% over
O 5.5 25% over
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
TEX at LAA Aug 10, 7:38 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMacKenzie Gore TEX starter / away
Projected K 6.1 Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +104 betrivers / U -120 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 84% over
O 4.5 71% over
O 5.5 56% over
O 6.5 40% over
O 7.5 27% over
O 8.5 17% over
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Reid Detmers LAA starter / home
Projected K 6.2 Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -121 betrivers / U +111 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 85% over
O 4.5 73% over
O 5.5 58% over
O 6.5 43% under
O 7.5 29% under
O 8.5 19% under
O 9.5 11% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
MIL at SDP Aug 10, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLogan Henderson MIL starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 betmgm / U -120 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 54% over
O 5.5 38% over
O 6.5 24% over
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Casey Mize SDP starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -148 betrivers / U +125 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 51% over
O 5.5 34% over
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
TBR at OAK Aug 10, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastFreddy Peralta TBR starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -128 fanduel / U +113 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 63% over
O 4.5 45% over
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Jacob Lopez OAK starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +112 draftkings / U -127 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 55% over
O 4.5 37% over
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
COL at ARI Aug 10, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGabriel Hughes COL starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -125 betrivers / U +116 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% under
O 4.5 33% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Michael Soroka ARI starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +110 bovada / U -136 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% over
O 4.5 33% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
HOU at SFG Aug 10, 7:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastHayden Wesneski HOU starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -162 betrivers / U +136 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 54% over
O 4.5 35% under
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Blade Tidwell SFG starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -135 betmgm / U +115 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 37% over
O 5.5 22% over
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
KCR at LAD Aug 10, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNoah Cameron KCR starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -145 fanatics / U +120 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% under
O 3.5 71% under
O 4.5 54% under
O 5.5 37% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Tarik Skubal LAD starter / home
Projected K 7.3 Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O -113 fanduel / U -104 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 92% over
O 4.5 83% over
O 5.5 72% over
O 6.5 58% under
O 7.5 44% under
O 8.5 31% under
O 9.5 21% under
O 10.5 13% under
O 11.5 8% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.