MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-08-17 / 22 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
STL at CIN Aug 17, 11:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrycen Mautz STL starter / away Thin data
Projected K 3.7 Did not start / void
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87%
O 2.5 70%
O 3.5 49%
O 4.5 31%
O 5.5 17%
O 6.5 8%
O 7.5 4%
O 8.5 2%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Brady Singer CIN starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Did not start / void
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88%
O 2.5 72%
O 3.5 51%
O 4.5 33%
O 5.5 19%
O 6.5 9%
O 7.5 4%
O 8.5 2%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
BAL at TBR Aug 17, 4:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrandon Young BAL starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -135 bovada / U +125 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 66%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 66% under
O 4.5 47% under
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Shane McClanahan TBR starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -105 betmgm / U -110 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% under
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
MIA at PHI Aug 17, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJanson Junk MIA starter / away
Projected K 3.4 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +134 draftkings / U -155 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 84% over
O 2.5 65% under
O 3.5 44% under
O 4.5 26% under
O 5.5 13% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Cristopher Sánchez PHI starter / home
Projected K 6.5 Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -125 betonlineag / U +115 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 88% over
O 4.5 76% over
O 5.5 62% over
O 6.5 47% under
O 7.5 33% under
O 8.5 22% under
O 9.5 14% under
O 10.5 8% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
STL at CIN Aug 17, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAndre Pallante STL starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -104 fanduel / U -102 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 33% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Rhett Lowder CIN starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +117 draftkings / U -138 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 41% over
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
DET at PIT Aug 17, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastFramber Valdez DET starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 bovada / U -149 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 28%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 63% over
O 4.5 44% over
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Carmen Mlodzinski PIT starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -155 betmgm / U +132 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 2.5 75%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 55% under
O 4.5 37% under
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
SDP at NYM Aug 17, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastWalker Buehler SDP starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +132 fanduel / U -153 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Nolan McLean NYM starter / home
Projected K 6.1 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -148 fanduel / U +120 fanatics 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 84% under
O 4.5 71% under
O 5.5 56% under
O 6.5 40% under
O 7.5 27% under
O 8.5 17% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
ARI at BOS Aug 17, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMitch Bratt ARI starter / away
Projected K 3.5 Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -120 betmgm / U +114 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% under
O 2.5 68% under
O 3.5 47% under
O 4.5 28% under
O 5.5 15% under
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Alec Gamboa BOS starter / home Thin data
Projected K 3.1 Actual 1 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 81% under
O 2.5 59% under
O 3.5 38% under
O 4.5 21% under
O 5.5 10% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
ATL at MIN Aug 17, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMartín Pérez ATL starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -108 fanduel / U -107 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 68% over
O 3.5 47% under
O 4.5 29% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Bailey Ober MIN starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +100 bovada / U -110 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 58% over
O 4.5 39% under
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
OAK at KCR Aug 17, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMason Barnett OAK starter / away
Projected K 3.5 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +115 betrivers / U -142 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 67% under
O 3.5 46% under
O 4.5 28% under
O 5.5 15% under
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Michael Wacha KCR starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +115 betonlineag / U -120 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 68% under
O 4.5 50% under
O 5.5 33% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
CHW at CHC Aug 17, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLuis Castillo CHW starter / away Thin data
Projected K 3.3 Actual 1 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 83% under
O 2.5 63% under
O 3.5 41% under
O 4.5 24% under
O 5.5 12% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Shota Imanaga CHC starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -115 betrivers / U +110 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 67% over
O 5.5 51% over
O 6.5 36% over
O 7.5 23% over
O 8.5 14% over
O 9.5 8% over
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
LAD at COL Aug 17, 6:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBlake Snell LAD starter / away
Projected K 6.9 Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -150 betrivers / U +125 bovada 4 books at this line
Model over 6.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 90% over
O 4.5 80% over
O 5.5 68% under
O 6.5 53% under
O 7.5 39% under
O 8.5 27% under
O 9.5 17% under
O 10.5 11% under
O 11.5 6% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Tomoyuki Sugano COL starter / home
Projected K 3.6 Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -145 draftkings / U +122 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 2.5 69%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 69% over
O 3.5 48% under
O 4.5 30% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.