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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-08-16 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
BAL at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Trevor RogersBAL starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 bovada / U -130 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Freddy PeraltaTBR starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 2 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +130 betmgm / U -145 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.529%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%under
O 3.576%under
O 4.560%under
O 5.543%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

BOS at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Patrick SandovalBOS starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 betonlineag / U -148 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Lake BacharPIT starter / home
Projected K2.6Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -152 betrivers / U +114 betrivers1 book at this line
Model over 2.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.573%over
O 2.549%over
O 3.527%over
O 4.513%under
O 5.56%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

ARI at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael SorokaARI starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +109 betonlineag / U -115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Bryce ElderATL starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -142 fanduel / U +120 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

NYY at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ryan WeathersNYY starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -142 fanduel / U +125 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Dylan CeaseTOR starter / home
Projected K9.3Actual 10 K / Over 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O -103 betrivers / U -101 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 8.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.598%over
O 4.594%over
O 5.588%over
O 6.580%over
O 7.569%over
O 8.557%over
O 9.544%over
O 10.533%under
O 11.524%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

WSN at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jake IrvinWSN starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +131 draftkings / U -155 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Christian ScottNYM starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -122 draftkings / U +117 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%over
O 6.538%over
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

CHW at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Sean BurkeCHW starter / away
Projected K6.5Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 bovada / U +103 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%under
O 3.588%under
O 4.576%under
O 5.562%under
O 6.547%under
O 7.533%under
O 8.522%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Drew AndersonDET starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +107 betrivers / U -122 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

SDP at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Casey MizeSDP starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +132 fanduel / U -158 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Tanner BibeeCLE starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +117 betonlineag / U -132 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%under
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

MIA at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Eury PérezMIA starter / away
Projected K6.4Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -111 fanduel / U +101 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%over
O 5.561%under
O 6.546%under
O 7.532%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Nick LodoloCIN starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -114 betrivers / U -102 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%under
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

PHI at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Andrew PainterPHI starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -128 draftkings / U +108 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%under
O 3.550%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Dean KremerMIN starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 betmgm / U -124 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

STL at CHC / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Hunter DobbinsSTL starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -140 fanduel / U +122 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.523%over
O 6.512%over
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Edward CabreraCHC starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -158 fanduel / U +129 draftkings3 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.572%under
O 3.552%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

COL at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Gabriel HughesCOL starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -157 betrivers / U +132 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%under
O 3.554%under
O 4.535%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Blade TidwellSFG starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -116 draftkings / U -108 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%under
O 2.582%under
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

TEX at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cody BradfordTEX starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +132 betonlineag / U -143 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jacob LopezOAK starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -145 betmgm / U +120 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

KCR at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Noah CameronKCR starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 fanduel / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.547%over
O 6.532%over
O 7.520%over
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Ryan JohnsonLAA starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -154 betonlineag / U +129 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

MIL at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Logan HendersonMIL starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 bovada / U -115 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.540%over
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Tarik SkubalLAD starter / home
Projected K7.5Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +112 fanduel / U -116 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.593%over
O 4.585%over
O 5.574%over
O 6.561%over
O 7.547%under
O 8.534%under
O 9.523%under
O 10.515%under
O 11.59%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

SEA at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Bryan WooSEA starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -103 betonlineag / U -113 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Hunter BrownHOU starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -118 draftkings / U +100 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%over
O 5.554%under
O 6.539%under
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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