sharps.ggEvery pick graded

MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-08-15 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
CHW at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Anthony KayCHW starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 betonlineag / U -136 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Troy MeltonDET starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +114 fanduel / U -118 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.570%under
O 5.555%under
O 6.539%under
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

STL at CHC / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael McGreevySTL starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +111 draftkings / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Matthew BoydCHC starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -112 draftkings / U -104 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%under
O 3.563%under
O 4.545%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

NYY at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / away
Projected K6.1Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +106 betrivers / U -125 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 6.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.556%over
O 6.541%over
O 7.528%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Braydon FisherTOR starter / home
Projected K2.4Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.569%under
O 2.543%under
O 3.522%under
O 4.510%under
O 5.54%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

COL at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael LorenzenCOL starter / away
Projected K3.2Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +115 fanatics / U -142 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%under
O 2.562%under
O 3.540%under
O 4.523%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Logan WebbSFG starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +102 draftkings / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.521%over
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

WSN at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Brad LordWSN starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +132 draftkings / U -150 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%under
O 2.571%under
O 3.550%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Sean ManaeaNYM starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -148 fanduel / U +122 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

BAL at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kyle BradishBAL starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -103 betonlineag / U -106 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Ian SeymourTBR starter / home
Projected K6.2Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -134 betrivers / U +115 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 6.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.573%over
O 5.558%over
O 6.542%over
O 7.529%over
O 8.518%over
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

MIA at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ryan GustoMIA starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 fanatics / U -115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.519%over
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Brady SingerCIN starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 betrivers / U -135 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 5.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%under
O 5.554%under
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

PHI at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / away
Projected K7.2Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +100 betmgm / U -119 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.592%over
O 4.583%over
O 5.571%over
O 6.557%over
O 7.543%over
O 8.530%over
O 9.520%under
O 10.513%under
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Connor PrielippMIN starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 betrivers / U -140 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

SEA at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Emerson HancockSEA starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +107 betrivers / U -113 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.523%over
O 6.513%over
O 7.56%over
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Hayden WesneskiHOU starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +124 fanduel / U -135 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.538%over
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

SDP at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Wandy PeraltaSDP starter / away
Projected K1.9Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.557%under
O 2.531%under
O 3.513%under
O 4.55%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Joey CantilloCLE starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 betmgm / U -138 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.555%over
O 6.540%over
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

BOS at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Sonny GrayBOS starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +107 betonlineag / U -110 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.525%over
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Jared JonesPIT starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -126 draftkings / U +106 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%over
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

MIL at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / away
Projected K8.2Actual 6 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O -122 fanduel / U +103 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 8.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.595%over
O 4.590%over
O 5.581%over
O 6.569%under
O 7.556%under
O 8.543%under
O 9.532%under
O 10.522%under
O 11.514%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Justin WrobleskiLAD starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -164 draftkings / U +138 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.540%over
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

ARI at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 fanduel / U -139 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Grant HolmesATL starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -136 betrivers / U +115 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

KCR at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Randy DobnakKCR starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +125 betrivers / U -148 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%over
O 5.521%over
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Reid DetmersLAA starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 11 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +119 draftkings / U -145 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 6.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%over
O 6.538%over
O 7.525%over
O 8.515%over
O 9.59%over
O 10.55%over
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

TEX at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +124 fanduel / U -143 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

J.T. GinnOAK starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -107 betrivers / U -107 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.520%over
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

sharps.gg