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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-08-14 / 28 starters
Market
Lines
STL at CHC / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +107 draftkings / U -120 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Clay HolmesCHC starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -138 fanduel / U +121 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.567%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

MIA at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -138 fanduel / U +114 betrivers3 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%under
O 3.580%under
O 4.565%under
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Chase BurnsCIN starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -104 fanduel / U -115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 6.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%over
O 5.554%over
O 6.539%over
O 7.526%over
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

BOS at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jake BennettBOS starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 bovada / U -132 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.525%over
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 fanduel / U -143 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

CHW at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Sean NewcombCHW starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.565%under
O 3.543%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Jackson JobeDET starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 betmgm / U +100 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

BAL at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Chris BassittBAL starter / away
Projected K2.8Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +125 betmgm / U -136 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 3.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.576%over
O 2.552%over
O 3.530%under
O 4.515%under
O 5.57%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Steven MatzTBR starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.576%under
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

WSN at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Andrew AlvarezWSN starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 fanduel / U -150 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Robert StockNYM starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -147 betonlineag / U +123 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.519%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

SDP at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael KingSDP starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -160 bovada / U +125 fanatics3 books at this line
Model over 3.572%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K8.0Actual 5 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +126 fanduel / U -140 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 7.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.595%over
O 4.588%over
O 5.579%under
O 6.567%under
O 7.553%under
O 8.540%under
O 9.529%under
O 10.519%under
O 11.512%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

NYY at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Gerrit ColeNYY starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 betonlineag / U -157 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Shane BieberTOR starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +135 betmgm / U -156 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

ARI at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Brandon PfaadtARI starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 betmgm / U -113 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.510%over
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Chris SaleATL starter / home
Projected K6.4Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +100 draftkings / U -110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%over
O 5.560%over
O 6.545%over
O 7.531%over
O 8.520%over
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

SEA at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
George KirbySEA starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -148 draftkings / U +126 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%under
O 3.571%under
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Peter LambertHOU starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -143 draftkings / U +130 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.569%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.554%over
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

KCR at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Seth LugoKCR starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 bovada / U +110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Grayson RodriguezLAA starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +135 betmgm / U -164 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

TEX at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kumar RockerTEX starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 draftkings / U -145 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%under
O 4.545%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Gage JumpOAK starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 1 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 betrivers / U -135 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%under
O 2.592%under
O 3.582%under
O 4.567%under
O 5.551%under
O 6.536%under
O 7.524%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

MIL at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Robert GasserMIL starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 bovada / U -128 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.523%over
O 6.513%over
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -114 draftkings / U +100 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 6.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.548%over
O 6.533%over
O 7.521%over
O 8.512%over
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

COL at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kyle FreelandCOL starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +135 bovada / U -166 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 5.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%under
O 3.565%under
O 4.546%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Landen RouppSFG starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -109 betonlineag / U -115 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.535%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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