MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-08-13 / 18 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
PIT at MIA Aug 13, 11:10 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBraxton Ashcraft PIT starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -105 betmgm / U +110 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 36% over
O 6.5 22% over
O 7.5 12% over
O 8.5 7% over
O 9.5 3% over
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Tyler Phillips MIA starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -130 fanatics / U +110 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 54% over
O 4.5 35% over
O 5.5 21% over
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CLE at DET Aug 13, 11:10 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastParker Messick CLE starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +102 fanduel / U -116 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% over
O 5.5 38% over
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Keider Montero DET starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 0 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -170 bovada / U +139 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 2.5 76%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% under
O 2.5 76% under
O 3.5 57% under
O 4.5 39% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
CIN at CHW Aug 13, 11:10 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAndrew Abbott CIN starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -133 draftkings / U +115 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% under
O 4.5 50% under
O 5.5 33% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Davis Martin CHW starter / home
Projected K 2.7 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -124 draftkings / U +105 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 14%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 74% over
O 2.5 50% over
O 3.5 29% under
O 4.5 14% under
O 5.5 6% under
O 6.5 2% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
SEA at NYY Aug 13, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLogan Gilbert SEA starter / away
Projected K 6.4 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -135 betmgm / U +115 bovada 4 books at this line
Model over 6.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 87% over
O 4.5 76% over
O 5.5 61% over
O 6.5 46% over
O 7.5 32% under
O 8.5 21% under
O 9.5 13% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Max Fried NYY starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -133 draftkings / U +115 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 56% under
O 5.5 39% under
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
BOS at TOR Aug 13, 1:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastPayton Tolle BOS starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -129 betrivers / U +105 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 58% under
O 5.5 42% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Max Scherzer TOR starter / home
Projected K 3.7 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +132 betonlineag / U -149 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 31%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 50% over
O 4.5 31% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
CHC at WSN Aug 13, 2:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKevin Gausman CHC starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +124 betonlineag / U -144 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% over
O 5.5 39% over
O 6.5 24% over
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Cade Cavalli WSN starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +110 bovada / U -125 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 79% over
O 4.5 64% over
O 5.5 47% over
O 6.5 32% over
O 7.5 20% over
O 8.5 12% over
O 9.5 6% over
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
PHI at MIN Aug 13, 5:30 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAaron Nola PHI starter / away
Projected K 5.6 Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -150 fanatics / U +125 betonlineag 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 65%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 49% over
O 6.5 33% over
O 7.5 21% over
O 8.5 13% over
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Taj Bradley MIN starter / home
Projected K 6.4 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -128 fanduel / U +105 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 87% under
O 4.5 76% under
O 5.5 61% under
O 6.5 46% under
O 7.5 32% under
O 8.5 21% under
O 9.5 13% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
TEX at LAA Aug 13, 8:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJacob deGrom TEX starter / away
Projected K 6.8 Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -125 fanduel / U +110 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 89% under
O 4.5 79% under
O 5.5 66% under
O 6.5 51% under
O 7.5 37% under
O 8.5 25% under
O 9.5 16% under
O 10.5 10% under
O 11.5 5% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Walbert Urena LAA starter / home
Projected K 5.7 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -165 betrivers / U +135 betonlineag 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 65%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 49% under
O 6.5 34% under
O 7.5 22% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
MIL at LAD Aug 13, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShane Drohan MIL starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -109 betrivers / U -105 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 33% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Roki Sasaki LAD starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -140 fanduel / U +125 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% under
O 3.5 80% under
O 4.5 65% under
O 5.5 48% under
O 6.5 33% under
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.