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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-08-12 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
BAL at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Shane BazBAL starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -128 fanduel / U +102 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%under
O 3.568%under
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Zebby MatthewsMIN starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +112 fanduel / U -129 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%under
O 5.543%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

PHI at STL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Zack WheelerPHI starter / away
Projected K5.9Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -148 fanduel / U +134 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 5.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%under
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Kyle LeahySTL starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -160 fanatics / U +128 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.570%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

TBR at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Drew RasmussenTBR starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -150 bovada / U +122 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%under
O 4.563%under
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Jack PerkinsOAK starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 bovada / U -142 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%under
O 3.566%under
O 4.548%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

COL at ARI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ryan FeltnerCOL starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +128 fanduel / U -159 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%under
O 3.549%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Merrill KellyARI starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -132 fanduel / U +125 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%under
O 3.564%under
O 4.545%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

HOU at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Bryan KingHOU starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.0Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%under
O 2.557%under
O 3.536%under
O 4.519%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Adrian HouserSFG starter / home
Projected K3.2Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +136 fanduel / U -163 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.560%over
O 3.539%over
O 4.522%over
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

MIL at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Dustin MayMIL starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -121 betrivers / U +115 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Robbie RaySDP starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -142 draftkings / U +118 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

PIT at MIA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Carmen MlodzinskiPIT starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -104 draftkings / U -113 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%under
O 2.574%under
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Janson JunkMIA starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +126 fanduel / U -153 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%under
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

CLE at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Foster GriffinCLE starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 betrivers / U -156 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%under
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Framber ValdezDET starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +107 draftkings / U -128 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

CHC at WSN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
David PetersonCHC starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +116 draftkings / U -135 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Jackson KentWSN starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.4Actual 6 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.565%over
O 3.544%over
O 4.526%over
O 5.513%over
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

SEA at NYY / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Bryce MillerSEA starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 betmgm / U -115 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Will WarrenNYY starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -135 bovada / U +115 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%under
O 4.545%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

BOS at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ranger SuarezBOS starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 fanatics / U -135 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%under
O 3.563%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

José SorianoTOR starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +135 betmgm / U -156 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.557%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

NYM at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Zac ThorntonNYM starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -114 betonlineag / U +105 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%under
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Tyler MahleATL starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 fanatics / U -140 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

CIN at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Rhett LowderCIN starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betrivers / U -137 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Luis CastilloCHW starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.8Actual 10 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.518%over
O 6.59%over
O 7.54%over
O 8.52%over
O 9.51%over
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

KCR at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Daniel Lynch IVKCR starter / away
Projected K3.1Actual 3 K / Over 1.5
Best price at 1.51.5O -190 betmgm / U +140 betmgm1 book at this line
Model over 1.581%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.560%over
O 3.538%under
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Eric LauerLAD starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +134 draftkings / U -164 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.519%over
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

TEX at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cal QuantrillTEX starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +105 betonlineag / U -120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%over
O 3.549%over
O 4.530%over
O 5.517%over
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

George KlassenLAA starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 bovada / U -103 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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