Ranked picks with source labels.

Model picks WSN at 58% but market implies ATL 55%. ATL has better record (17-8 vs 11-14) and higher RPG (6.6 vs 5.3). JR Ritchie's away pitcher dat...

Model total of 9.42 is 1.58 runs under market's 11.0 at Coors (PF 1.47). Waldron data is fallback, limiting conviction. SDP's 16-8 record vs COL's...

Market at 67.5% DET vs model's 57.5% is a huge gap. Skubal's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is microscopic sample, but market knows something model doesn't. Spro...

Model likes BOS at 57.5% while market implies NYY at 57.7%—a 15-point gap favoring opposite sides. BOS is 8-16 scoring 2.8 RPG vs NYY's 5.7 RPG, ye...

Scott's missing stats force heavy reliance on team context. MIN's 5.0 RPG offense vs NYM's 2.2 RPG is stark. Model projects 9.24 total vs market 7....

Model has PIT at 55.2% but market strongly disagrees at TEX 59.1%. Missing pitcher stats for both deGrom and Chandler makes this opaque. Model's 9....

Model has LAD at 52% vs market's 59%; model total 9.17 vs market 7.5 is a massive 1.67-run gap. Oracle Park (0.906 PF) + Glasnow (3.0 ERA, 0.83 WHI...