Ranked picks with source labels.

Model likes TBR at 60.2% vs market's 56.1% — a 4pp comparison. But Matz (7.20 ERA, 3.6 K/9 in 50 IP) is getting torched, and DET's away opponent wi...

Model has STL at 60% while market is coin flip. Both starters have ERAs north of 9.00 in tiny samples (4-4.7 IP), making these fallback-quality sta...

Model projects 9.04 runs vs market 7.5 — a 1.54 run gap triggers total_far_from_market flag. Away pitcher Gage Jump has 1 career start with no reso...

Model has HOU at 60% but market says coin flip (50.7%). Bubba Chandler's stats are entirely missing—data_quality says 'full' but IP/ERA/K9/WHIP are...

Model has NYY 58%, market implies 68% — a 10-point gap flags structural miss. CLE offense is league-worst at 2.4 RPG but model sees comparison via...