Ranked picks with source labels.

Model has CHW at 56% vs market's 44%, a massive 12pp gap flagged as market_disagreement_large. Model total of 7.26 is 1.74 runs under market's 9.0—...

Model picks PIT at 56% vs market 50.5%, a minor comparison. Ashcraft's 3.07 ERA over 96.7 IP is legitimate vs Nola's 5.58 in 80.7 IP. Citizens Bank...

Model favors MIN 56% vs market 45%, but extreme park (0.81 PF) argues under on 9.0 total. Lambert's 3.28 ERA in 68.7 IP is credible; Matthews 4.56...

MIA favored by both model (56%) and market (57%). COL pitcher is TBD/fallback with 6.83 ERA baseline. Coors 1.47 park factor screams runs but model...

Market strongly favors BOS at 60.8% while model has WSN at 55.8%. Suarez (2.83 ERA, 9.15 K/9 over 82.7 IP) is the clear pitching comparison over Mi...

Model leans SFG 55.8% vs market 44.6%, but ARI offense is weak (.564 OPS) and Rodriguez (2.27 ERA, 95 IP) is the ace. Mahle's 5.49 ERA is vulnerabl...

Model favors DET 55.7% vs market's 45% (DET +118). DET's 30-54 record and .582 OPS make this a classic offense_defense_mismatch scenario the model...

Model picks CIN at 55.7% vs market MIL 58.3%. MIL has 45-36 record vs CIN 35-47; model choosing worse team flags offense_defense_mismatch. Gasser 4...

Model has NYM at 53.6%, market has TOR at 54%. Near-toss-up with thin comparison to away side. More importantly, model predicts 6.86 runs vs market...

Away pitcher TBD with fallback stats makes both moneyline and total unreliable. Model predicts 8.0 runs vs market 11.5—a 3.5-run gap flags structur...

Model has LAA at 53.6% but market implies SEA 66.7% — a 13-point disagreement favoring the home side. Kirby (3.94 ERA, 96 IP) vs Johnson (8.84 ERA,...

Model predicts 7.86 runs in a 1.104 park factor venue while market sets 10.5—a 2.6-run gap flags structural miss. Jump's 2.04 ERA over 35 IP is eli...

Model has TEX at 53.4% but market strongly disagrees at CLE 57.7% implied. Both pitchers sub-2.70 ERA flags ace matchup; model's 9.13 total vs mark...