Ranked picks with source labels.

Hunter Greene's stats are entirely missing (fallback), making CIN side unreliable. Model has CIN at 62% vs market's 53%—a 9-point gap flags market_...

Model (62%) and market (61%) align on ATL. Sale's 2.10 ERA in 90 IP is elite; Manaea's 4.71 ERA creates clear mismatch. Truist's 0.915 park factor...

SEA at T-Mobile (PF 0.855) with Gilbert (3.42 ERA, 1.01 WHIP over 100 IP) against Bieber who has pitched only 9.0 IP this season (6.00 ERA, 2.00 WH...

Model has KCR at 57.6% but market prices PHI -144 (59% implied). PHI scores 6.4 RPG vs KCR's 3.2, yet model backs the weaker offense. Luzardo (3.88...

Model has OAK at 56% despite worse record and much weaker offense (.512 OPS vs .774). Market correctly favors MIA at 54%. Extreme park (PF 1.104) i...

Model has HOU 53% in a pick'em market, but TBR is 51-33 vs HOU 43-46 with superior offense (5.8 RPG, .802 OPS vs 4.4/.695). Ace matchup (Brown 1.78...

Model has LAA at 53% but market strongly favors BOS at 60%. Gray's 2.69 ERA over 83.7 IP is legitimate ace form vs Aldegheri's 4.85 in limited samp...

Model has SFG 55.7%, market implies 54.2% — tight convergence. Coors 1.47 park factor dominates SHAP but model total 9.78 vs market 11.5 is a 1.7-r...