HOU at SFG

Model has SFG at 58.3% vs market's 41.5% while picking the team with the worse record (49-69) and far worse offense (2.8 RPG, .388 OPS vs HOU's 5.2...

Model's 56.8% on MIN is ~8 pts above the market's 48.5% implied, and the pitching matchup argues the other way: Kremer's 5.93 ERA and 1.32 WHIP ove...

Model total of 8.98 vs market 7.0 is a structural miss: Petco at 0.96 PF with Mize (3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) and Henderson (2.70 ERA, 11.2 K/9, 0.90 WH...

Model takes LAA (45-73, 2.4 RPG) over TEX (59-59, 3.5 RPG) despite worse record and worse scoring output, which the mismatch flag correctly flags....

Model's 52.9% on LAD is far off the market's 73% and hard to justify: Skubal (2.81 ERA, 10.69 K/9, 0.92 WHIP) faces a KCR lineup posting a .518 OPS...

Painter's 6.48 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over 75 IP is a meaningful gap on Dobbins' 3.60 ERA, and STL is getting a plus price (+107) as the pitching-compar...