MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-07-04 / 15 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-07-04
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
BALBaltimore Orioles+108
CINCincinnati Reds-126
Pick Probability62%CIN moneyline
BALBrandon YoungConfirmed
CINHunter GreeneConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.9
AI Analyst
CIN / pass confidence / Rank 8

Hunter Greene's stats are entirely missing (fallback), making CIN side unreliable. Model has CIN at 62% vs market's 53%—a 9-point gap flags market_...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets+158
ATLAtlanta Braves-190
Pick Probability62%ATL moneyline
NYMSean ManaeaConfirmed
ATLChris SaleConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context0.9
AI Analyst
ATL / standard confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

Model (62%) and market (61%) align on ATL. Sale's 2.10 ERA in 90 IP is elite; Manaea's 4.71 ERA creates clear mismatch. Truist's 0.915 park factor...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
TORToronto Blue Jays+138
SEASeattle Mariners-164
Pick Probability58%SEA moneyline
TORShane BieberConfirmed
SEALogan GilbertConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
SEA / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

SEA at T-Mobile (PF 0.855) with Gilbert (3.42 ERA, 1.01 WHIP over 100 IP) against Bieber who has pitched only 9.0 IP this season (6.00 ERA, 2.00 WH...

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+138
CHCChicago Cubs-165
Pick Probability58%CHC moneyline
STLKyle LeahyConfirmed
CHCShota ImanagaConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.7
Model pick
CHC moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-157
KCRKansas City Royals+131
Pick Probability58%KCR moneyline
PHIJesús LuzardoConfirmed
KCRMichael WachaConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
PHI / standard confidence / Rank 4 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has KCR at 57.6% but market prices PHI -144 (59% implied). PHI scores 6.4 RPG vs KCR's 3.2, yet model backs the weaker offense. Luzardo (3.88...

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-07-04
Rank#1
NYM at ATLNew York Mets at Atlanta Braves
AI Analyst PickATLstandard confidence
Agrees with modelATL / 62%Model pick probability

Model (62%) and market (61%) align on ATL. Sale's 2.10 ERA in 90 IP is elite; Manaea's 4.71 ERA creates clear mismatch. Truist's 0.915 park factor argues under, but mo...

Rank#2
BOS at LAABoston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels
AI Analyst PickBOSstandard confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelLAA / 53%Model pick probability

Model has LAA at 53% but market strongly favors BOS at 60%. Gray's 2.69 ERA over 83.7 IP is legitimate ace form vs Aldegheri's 4.85 in limited sample (29.7 IP). Model...

Rank#3
TOR at SEAToronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners
AI Analyst PickSEAlean confidence
Agrees with modelSEA / 58%Model pick probability

SEA at T-Mobile (PF 0.855) with Gilbert (3.42 ERA, 1.01 WHIP over 100 IP) against Bieber who has pitched only 9.0 IP this season (6.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP). Bieber's small...

Rank#4
PHI at KCRPhiladelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals
AI Analyst PickPHIstandard confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelKCR / 58%Model pick probability

Model has KCR at 57.6% but market prices PHI -144 (59% implied). PHI scores 6.4 RPG vs KCR's 3.2, yet model backs the weaker offense. Luzardo (3.88 ERA, 10.73 K/9) is...

Rank#5
SFG at COLSan Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
AI Analyst PickSFGlean confidence
Agrees with modelCOL / 53%Model pick probability

Model has SFG 55.7%, market implies 54.2% — tight convergence. Coors 1.47 park factor dominates SHAP but model total 9.78 vs market 11.5 is a 1.7-run gap favoring unde...

Rank#6
TBR at HOUTampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros
AI Analyst PickTBRlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelHOU / 53%Model pick probability

Model has HOU 53% in a pick'em market, but TBR is 51-33 vs HOU 43-46 with superior offense (5.8 RPG, .802 OPS vs 4.4/.695). Ace matchup (Brown 1.78 ERA, Rasmussen 2.45...

Rank#7
MIA at OAKMiami Marlins at Oakland Athletics
AI Analyst PickMIAlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelOAK / 56%Model pick probability

Model has OAK at 56% despite worse record and much weaker offense (.512 OPS vs .774). Market correctly favors MIA at 54%. Extreme park (PF 1.104) inflates model's 9.71...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

15 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
BALBaltimore Orioles+108
CINCincinnati Reds-126
Pick Probability62%CIN moneyline
BALBrandon YoungConfirmed
CINHunter GreeneConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.9
AI Analyst
CIN / pass confidence / Rank 8

Hunter Greene's stats are entirely missing (fallback), making CIN side unreliable. Model has CIN at 62% vs market's 53%—a 9-point gap flags market_...

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets+158
ATLAtlanta Braves-190
Pick Probability62%ATL moneyline
NYMSean ManaeaConfirmed
ATLChris SaleConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context0.9
AI Analyst
ATL / standard confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

Model (62%) and market (61%) align on ATL. Sale's 2.10 ERA in 90 IP is elite; Manaea's 4.71 ERA creates clear mismatch. Truist's 0.915 park factor...

MLBMoneyline
Open
TORToronto Blue Jays+138
SEASeattle Mariners-164
Pick Probability58%SEA moneyline
TORShane BieberConfirmed
SEALogan GilbertConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
SEA / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

SEA at T-Mobile (PF 0.855) with Gilbert (3.42 ERA, 1.01 WHIP over 100 IP) against Bieber who has pitched only 9.0 IP this season (6.00 ERA, 2.00 WH...

MLBMoneyline
Open
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+138
CHCChicago Cubs-165
Pick Probability58%CHC moneyline
STLKyle LeahyConfirmed
CHCShota ImanagaConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.7
Model pick
CHC moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-157
KCRKansas City Royals+131
Pick Probability58%KCR moneyline
PHIJesús LuzardoConfirmed
KCRMichael WachaConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
PHI / standard confidence / Rank 4 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has KCR at 57.6% but market prices PHI -144 (59% implied). PHI scores 6.4 RPG vs KCR's 3.2, yet model backs the weaker offense. Luzardo (3.88...

MLBMoneyline
Open
SDPSan Diego Padres+210
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-263
Pick Probability58%LAD moneyline
SDPWandy PeraltaProbable
LADYoshinobu YamamotoProbable
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.6
Model pick
LAD moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHWChicago White Sox+120
CLECleveland Guardians-140
Pick Probability56%CLE moneyline
CHWSean BurkeConfirmed
CLEParker MessickConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.5
Model pick
CLE moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
MIAMiami Marlins-139
OAKOakland Athletics+116
Pick Probability56%OAK moneyline
MIASandy AlcantaraConfirmed
OAKAaron CivaleConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total11.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
MIA / lean confidence / Rank 7 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has OAK at 56% despite worse record and much weaker offense (.512 OPS vs .774). Market correctly favors MIA at 54%. Extreme park (PF 1.104) i...

MLBMoneyline
Open
DETDetroit Tigers-125
TEXTexas Rangers+105
Pick Probability56%DET moneyline
DETJack FlahertyConfirmed
TEXCal QuantrillConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.5
Model pick
DET moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
MINMinnesota Twins+128
NYYNew York Yankees-152
Pick Probability53%NYY moneyline
MINZebby MatthewsConfirmed
NYYBrendan BeckConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.0
Model pick
NYY moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
TBRTampa Bay Rays-101
HOUHouston Astros-118
Pick Probability53%HOU moneyline
TBRDrew RasmussenConfirmed
HOUHunter BrownConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.1
AI Analyst
TBR / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has HOU 53% in a pick'em market, but TBR is 51-33 vs HOU 43-46 with superior offense (5.8 RPG, .802 OPS vs 4.4/.695). Ace matchup (Brown 1.78...

MLBMoneyline
Open
BOSBoston Red Sox-175
LAALos Angeles Angels+146
Pick Probability53%LAA moneyline
BOSSonny GrayConfirmed
LAASam AldegheriConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.1
AI Analyst
BOS / standard confidence / Rank 2 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has LAA at 53% but market strongly favors BOS at 60%. Gray's 2.69 ERA over 83.7 IP is legitimate ace form vs Aldegheri's 4.85 in limited samp...

MLBMoneyline
Open
PITPittsburgh Pirates-157
WSNWashington Nationals+132
Pick Probability53%PIT moneyline
PITBraxton AshcraftConfirmed
WSNCarson PalmquistConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.4
Model pick
PIT moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
MILMilwaukee Brewers-163
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+136
Pick Probability53%MIL moneyline
MILBrandon WoodruffProbable
ARIMerrill KellyConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.5
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
MIL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants-129
COLColorado Rockies+110
Pick Probability53%COL moneyline
SFGRobbie RayConfirmed
COLSean SullivanConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total12.5
Projected Total9.4
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
SFG / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Model has SFG 55.7%, market implies 54.2% — tight convergence. Coors 1.47 park factor dominates SHAP but model total 9.78 vs market 11.5 is a 1.7-r...

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