MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-06-29 / 26 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
CHW at BAL Jun 29, 4:35 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSean Burke CHW starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 betmgm / U -110 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 58% over
O 5.5 41% over
O 6.5 27% over
O 7.5 16% over
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Shane Baz BAL starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +110 fanduel / U -132 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% over
O 5.5 43% over
O 6.5 29% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
PIT at PHI Jun 29, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBraxton Ashcraft PIT starter / away
Projected K 5.8 Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +120 betonlineag / U -136 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 68% over
O 5.5 52% over
O 6.5 36% over
O 7.5 24% over
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Aaron Nola PHI starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -115 fanduel / U +107 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
DET at NYY Jun 29, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCasey Mize DET starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +105 bovada / U -121 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 35% over
O 6.5 22% over
O 7.5 12% over
O 8.5 6% over
O 9.5 3% over
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Ryan Weathers NYY starter / home
Projected K 5.9 Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +110 fanduel / U -117 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 83% under
O 4.5 69% under
O 5.5 53% under
O 6.5 38% under
O 7.5 25% under
O 8.5 15% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
NYM at TOR Jun 29, 5:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSean Manaea NYM starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +125 bovada / U -149 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 63% over
O 4.5 45% under
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Trey Yesavage TOR starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -125 draftkings / U +110 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% under
O 4.5 65% under
O 5.5 49% under
O 6.5 34% under
O 7.5 22% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
TEX at CLE Jun 29, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTyler Alexander TEX starter / away
Projected K 2.9 Actual 2 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 79% over
O 2.5 56% under
O 3.5 34% under
O 4.5 18% under
O 5.5 8% under
O 6.5 3% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Parker Messick CLE starter / home
Projected K 6.0 Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +118 fanduel / U -140 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 70% over
O 5.5 55% under
O 6.5 39% under
O 7.5 26% under
O 8.5 16% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
WSN at BOS Jun 29, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMiles Mikolas WSN starter / away
Projected K 3.0 Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -112 draftkings / U +100 betonlineag 2 books at this line
Model over 2.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 79% over
O 2.5 57% over
O 3.5 35% under
O 4.5 18% under
O 5.5 9% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Ranger Suarez BOS starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -102 fanduel / U -105 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 49% over
O 6.5 34% over
O 7.5 21% over
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
CIN at MIL Jun 29, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNick Lodolo CIN starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -108 betonlineag / U -104 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 54% under
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Robert Gasser MIL starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -115 bovada / U +100 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 46% under
O 6.5 31% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
SDP at CHC Jun 29, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGriffin Canning SDP starter / away
Projected K 3.7 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -139 betrivers / U +120 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 50% under
O 4.5 32% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Shota Imanaga CHC starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -134 betrivers / U +125 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% under
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
MIN at HOU Jun 29, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastZebby Matthews MIN starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -149 betonlineag / U +124 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 32% over
O 6.5 19% over
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Peter Lambert HOU starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -146 draftkings / U +125 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% under
O 5.5 42% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
MIA at COL Jun 29, 6:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSandy Alcantara MIA starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -105 betonlineag / U -112 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% under
O 4.5 46% under
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Sean Sullivan COL starter / home Thin data
Projected K 3.3 Actual 5 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 83% over
O 2.5 63% over
O 3.5 41% over
O 4.5 24% over
O 5.5 12% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
LAA at SEA Jun 29, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRyan Johnson LAA starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +125 betonlineag / U -140 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% under
O 4.5 49% under
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
George Kirby SEA starter / home
Projected K 6.1 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +100 betonlineag / U -105 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 84% over
O 4.5 72% over
O 5.5 56% over
O 6.5 41% over
O 7.5 28% under
O 8.5 17% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
LAD at OAK Jun 29, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastEric Lauer LAD starter / away
Projected K 3.3 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -156 betonlineag / U +128 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 84% over
O 2.5 64% under
O 3.5 42% under
O 4.5 25% under
O 5.5 13% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Gage Jump OAK starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -165 fanatics / U +138 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 54% over
O 5.5 37% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
SFG at ARI Jun 29, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTyler Mahle SFG starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -156 betonlineag / U +126 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 57% under
O 4.5 38% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Eduardo Rodriguez ARI starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -130 fanduel / U +110 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% under
O 2.5 81% under
O 3.5 64% under
O 4.5 46% under
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.