MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-06-30 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
CHW at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Erick FeddeCHW starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +123 betrivers / U -136 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%under
O 4.527%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Trey GibsonBAL starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +124 fanduel / U -135 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.535%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

PIT at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 betrivers / U +100 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / home
Projected K7.5Actual 9 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -120 fanduel / U +107 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.593%over
O 4.585%over
O 5.574%over
O 6.561%over
O 7.547%over
O 8.534%over
O 9.523%under
O 10.515%under
O 11.59%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

TEX at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jacob deGromTEX starter / away
Projected K6.4Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -130 fanatics / U +105 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 6.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%over
O 5.561%over
O 6.545%over
O 7.532%over
O 8.521%over
O 9.513%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Tanner BibeeCLE starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 draftkings / U -145 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%under
O 3.575%under
O 4.558%under
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

DET at NYY / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tarik SkubalDET starter / away
Projected K6.3Actual 9 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +105 fanatics / U -116 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 7.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.559%over
O 6.544%over
O 7.530%over
O 8.519%over
O 9.512%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 5 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +115 betonlineag / U -125 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.525%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.554%under
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

NYM at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Nolan McLeanNYM starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 betonlineag / U -113 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.525%over
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Kevin GausmanTOR starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -110 draftkings / U -106 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.548%over
O 6.533%over
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

WSN at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cade CavalliWSN starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 13 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betonlineag / U +105 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.518%over
O 7.59%over
O 8.55%over
O 9.52%over
O 10.51%over
O 11.50%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 13 strikeouts.

Connelly EarlyBOS starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -114 fanduel / U +103 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

STL at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +135 bovada / U -145 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.518%over
O 7.510%over
O 8.55%over
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Martín PérezATL starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betmgm / U +116 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%under
O 2.582%under
O 3.566%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

CIN at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Rhett LowderCIN starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 bovada / U -148 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.523%over
O 6.513%over
O 7.56%over
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Brandon SproatMIL starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +101 draftkings / U -112 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.534%over
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

TBR at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Griffin JaxTBR starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -150 betmgm / U +120 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.532%over
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Noah CameronKCR starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 fanduel / U -134 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%under
O 2.582%under
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

SDP at CHC / Final / frozen pregame forecast
JP SearsSDP starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -154 betonlineag / U +125 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Matthew BoydCHC starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 fanduel / U -145 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%under
O 3.577%under
O 4.561%under
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

MIN at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Joe RyanMIN starter / away
Projected K6.4Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -145 betonlineag / U +119 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 6.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%over
O 5.561%under
O 6.546%under
O 7.532%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Mike BurrowsHOU starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betonlineag / U +111 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

MIA at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Eury PérezMIA starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 bovada / U -149 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.520%over
O 7.511%over
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Tanner GordonCOL starter / home
Projected K3.5Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +135 betmgm / U -144 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.545%over
O 4.527%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

LAA at SEA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
José SorianoLAA starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -112 fanduel / U -105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.548%over
O 6.533%over
O 7.521%over
O 8.512%over
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Bryan WooSEA starter / home
Projected K6.4Actual 5 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +118 fanduel / U -130 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 7.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%over
O 5.561%under
O 6.546%under
O 7.532%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

LAD at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Justin WrobleskiLAD starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 11 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -123 draftkings / U +122 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.536%over
O 5.521%over
O 6.511%over
O 7.55%over
O 8.52%over
O 9.51%over
O 10.50%over
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Jeffrey SpringsOAK starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +136 fanduel / U -168 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%under
O 3.563%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

SFG at ARI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Landen RouppSFG starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -114 betonlineag / U +102 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Brandon PfaadtARI starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 betmgm / U -158 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%under
O 3.550%under
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.