MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-06-30 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
CHW at BAL Jun 30, 4:35 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastErick Fedde CHW starter / away
Projected K 3.5 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +123 betrivers / U -136 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85% over
O 2.5 67% over
O 3.5 46% under
O 4.5 27% under
O 5.5 15% under
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Trey Gibson BAL starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +124 fanduel / U -135 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 51% over
O 5.5 35% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
PIT at PHI Jun 30, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBubba Chandler PIT starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -110 betrivers / U +100 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 44% over
O 5.5 28% over
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Cristopher Sánchez PHI starter / home
Projected K 7.5 Actual 9 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O -120 fanduel / U +107 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 93% over
O 4.5 85% over
O 5.5 74% over
O 6.5 61% over
O 7.5 47% over
O 8.5 34% over
O 9.5 23% under
O 10.5 15% under
O 11.5 9% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
TEX at CLE Jun 30, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJacob deGrom TEX starter / away
Projected K 6.4 Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -130 fanatics / U +105 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 87% over
O 4.5 75% over
O 5.5 61% over
O 6.5 45% over
O 7.5 32% over
O 8.5 21% over
O 9.5 13% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Tanner Bibee CLE starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +130 draftkings / U -145 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% under
O 3.5 75% under
O 4.5 58% under
O 5.5 41% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
DET at NYY Jun 30, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTarik Skubal DET starter / away
Projected K 6.3 Actual 9 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +105 fanatics / U -116 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 7.5 30%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 86% over
O 4.5 74% over
O 5.5 59% over
O 6.5 44% over
O 7.5 30% over
O 8.5 19% over
O 9.5 12% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Cam Schlittler NYY starter / home
Projected K 5.9 Actual 5 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +115 betonlineag / U -125 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 25%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 69% over
O 5.5 54% under
O 6.5 38% under
O 7.5 25% under
O 8.5 16% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
NYM at TOR Jun 30, 5:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNolan McLean NYM starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 betonlineag / U -113 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 56% over
O 5.5 39% over
O 6.5 25% over
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Kevin Gausman TOR starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -110 draftkings / U -106 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 79% over
O 4.5 64% over
O 5.5 48% over
O 6.5 33% over
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
WSN at BOS Jun 30, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCade Cavalli WSN starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 13 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 betonlineag / U +105 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 46% over
O 5.5 30% over
O 6.5 18% over
O 7.5 9% over
O 8.5 5% over
O 9.5 2% over
O 10.5 1% over
O 11.5 0% over
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 13 strikeouts.
Connelly Early BOS starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -114 fanduel / U +103 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 79% over
O 4.5 64% over
O 5.5 48% under
O 6.5 33% under
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
STL at ATL Jun 30, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMatthew Liberatore STL starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +135 bovada / U -145 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 47% over
O 5.5 31% over
O 6.5 18% over
O 7.5 10% over
O 8.5 5% over
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Martín Pérez ATL starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -135 betmgm / U +116 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 66%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% under
O 2.5 82% under
O 3.5 66% under
O 4.5 47% under
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
CIN at MIL Jun 30, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRhett Lowder CIN starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 bovada / U -148 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 57% over
O 4.5 39% over
O 5.5 23% over
O 6.5 13% over
O 7.5 6% over
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Brandon Sproat MIL starter / home
Projected K 5.7 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +101 draftkings / U -112 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 66% over
O 5.5 49% over
O 6.5 34% over
O 7.5 22% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
TBR at KCR Jun 30, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGriffin Jax TBR starter / away
Projected K 3.7 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -150 betmgm / U +120 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 32%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 51% over
O 4.5 32% over
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Noah Cameron KCR starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +128 fanduel / U -134 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% under
O 2.5 82% under
O 3.5 65% under
O 4.5 47% under
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
SDP at CHC Jun 30, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJP Sears SDP starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -154 betonlineag / U +125 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Matthew Boyd CHC starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +126 fanduel / U -145 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 89% under
O 3.5 77% under
O 4.5 61% under
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
MIN at HOU Jun 30, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJoe Ryan MIN starter / away
Projected K 6.4 Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -145 betonlineag / U +119 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 87% over
O 4.5 75% over
O 5.5 61% under
O 6.5 46% under
O 7.5 32% under
O 8.5 21% under
O 9.5 13% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Mike Burrows HOU starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 betonlineag / U +111 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% under
O 4.5 53% under
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
MIA at COL Jun 30, 6:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastEury Pérez MIA starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +125 bovada / U -149 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% over
O 5.5 34% over
O 6.5 20% over
O 7.5 11% over
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Tanner Gordon COL starter / home
Projected K 3.5 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +135 betmgm / U -144 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85% over
O 2.5 66% over
O 3.5 45% over
O 4.5 27% under
O 5.5 14% under
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
LAA at SEA Jun 30, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJosé Soriano LAA starter / away
Projected K 5.6 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -112 fanduel / U -105 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 48% over
O 6.5 33% over
O 7.5 21% over
O 8.5 12% over
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Bryan Woo SEA starter / home
Projected K 6.4 Actual 5 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +118 fanduel / U -130 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 7.5 32%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 87% over
O 4.5 75% over
O 5.5 61% under
O 6.5 46% under
O 7.5 32% under
O 8.5 21% under
O 9.5 13% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
LAD at OAK Jun 30, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJustin Wrobleski LAD starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 11 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -123 draftkings / U +122 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 54% over
O 4.5 36% over
O 5.5 21% over
O 6.5 11% over
O 7.5 5% over
O 8.5 2% over
O 9.5 1% over
O 10.5 0% over
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
Jeffrey Springs OAK starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +136 fanduel / U -168 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% under
O 3.5 63% under
O 4.5 44% under
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
SFG at ARI Jun 30, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLanden Roupp SFG starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -114 betonlineag / U +102 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% under
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Brandon Pfaadt ARI starter / home
Projected K 3.7 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +130 betmgm / U -158 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 70% under
O 3.5 50% under
O 4.5 31% under
O 5.5 17% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.