MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-07-01 / 27 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
CHW at BAL Jul 1, 10:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNoah Schultz CHW starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -155 betrivers / U +128 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 51% over
O 4.5 33% over
O 5.5 18% over
O 6.5 9% over
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Dean Kremer BAL starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +124 fanduel / U -132 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 52% under
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
TEX at CLE Jul 1, 11:10 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMacKenzie Gore TEX starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +106 betonlineag / U -117 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 23%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 53% over
O 5.5 37% over
O 6.5 23% over
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Joey Cantillo CLE starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -105 fanduel / U -113 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 68% under
O 5.5 52% under
O 6.5 37% under
O 7.5 24% under
O 8.5 15% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
DET at NYY Jul 1, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTroy Melton DET starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -103 betonlineag / U +109 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 57% over
O 4.5 38% over
O 5.5 23% over
O 6.5 13% over
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Will Warren NYY starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -119 betonlineag / U +101 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 54% over
O 5.5 37% over
O 6.5 23% over
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
WSN at BOS Jul 1, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrad Lord WSN starter / away
Projected K 3.2 Actual 1 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 82% under
O 2.5 61% under
O 3.5 39% under
O 4.5 22% under
O 5.5 11% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Payton Tolle BOS starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -103 betrivers / U -103 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 35% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
SDP at CHC Jul 1, 12:20 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastWalker Buehler SDP starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -160 betmgm / U +132 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% over
O 5.5 26% over
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Colin Rea CHC starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -130 betmgm / U +126 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 62%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 43% over
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
NYM at TOR Jul 1, 1:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastFreddy Peralta NYM starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -130 bovada / U +108 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Braydon Fisher TOR starter / home
Projected K 2.5 Actual 1 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 71% under
O 2.5 46% under
O 3.5 25% under
O 4.5 12% under
O 5.5 5% under
O 6.5 2% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
PIT at PHI Jul 1, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastPaul Skenes PIT starter / away
Projected K 6.7 Actual 5 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +125 betonlineag / U -152 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 7.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 89% over
O 4.5 78% over
O 5.5 64% under
O 6.5 49% under
O 7.5 35% under
O 8.5 24% under
O 9.5 15% under
O 10.5 9% under
O 11.5 5% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Zack Wheeler PHI starter / home
Projected K 6.1 Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +115 betmgm / U -136 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 7.5 28%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 84% over
O 4.5 71% over
O 5.5 56% over
O 6.5 41% over
O 7.5 28% over
O 8.5 17% over
O 9.5 10% over
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
STL at ATL Jul 1, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael McGreevy STL starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +130 bovada / U -154 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% under
O 4.5 34% under
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Reynaldo López ATL starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +130 betmgm / U -149 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 60% over
O 4.5 42% over
O 5.5 26% over
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
TBR at KCR Jul 1, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShane McClanahan TBR starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +115 bovada / U -125 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 37% under
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Seth Lugo KCR starter / home
Projected K 3.5 Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -130 fanatics / U +118 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85% over
O 2.5 67% over
O 3.5 46% over
O 4.5 28% over
O 5.5 15% over
O 6.5 7% over
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
CIN at MIL Jul 1, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAndrew Abbott CIN starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +114 betrivers / U -120 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% under
O 4.5 56% under
O 5.5 39% under
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Shane Drohan MIL starter / home
Projected K 5.1 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +112 betrivers / U -116 betonlineag 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 57% over
O 5.5 40% over
O 6.5 26% over
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
MIN at HOU Jul 1, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTaj Bradley MIN starter / away
Projected K 5.5 Actual 11 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -131 draftkings / U +112 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 47% over
O 6.5 32% over
O 7.5 20% over
O 8.5 11% over
O 9.5 6% over
O 10.5 3% over
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
Tatsuya Imai HOU starter / home
Projected K 5.7 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -143 betrivers / U +120 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% under
O 3.5 81% under
O 4.5 67% under
O 5.5 50% under
O 6.5 35% under
O 7.5 23% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
MIA at COL Jul 1, 6:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMax Meyer MIA starter / away
Projected K 5.5 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -135 bovada / U +120 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 79% over
O 4.5 64% over
O 5.5 47% under
O 6.5 32% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Kyle Freeland COL starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -130 betonlineag / U +118 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% over
O 4.5 41% over
O 5.5 25% over
O 6.5 14% over
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
LAD at OAK Jul 1, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJ.T. Ginn OAK starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +130 betmgm / U -137 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 54% under
O 5.5 37% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
SFG at ARI Jul 1, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTrevor McDonald SFG starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +102 fanduel / U -105 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 54% over
O 4.5 35% over
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Zac Gallen ARI starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -106 betrivers / U -109 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 54% over
O 4.5 35% under
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.