MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-07-02 / 18 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
PIT at PHI Jul 2, 10:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJared Jones PIT starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -151 draftkings / U +130 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 51% over
O 5.5 34% over
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Alan Rangel PHI starter / home Thin data
Projected K 3.6 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 betrivers / U -140 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 30%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 70% over
O 3.5 49% over
O 4.5 30% under
O 5.5 17% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
CIN at MIL Jul 2, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastChase Burns CIN starter / away
Projected K 6.6 Actual 4 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +120 betrivers / U -135 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 7.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 88% over
O 4.5 77% under
O 5.5 63% under
O 6.5 48% under
O 7.5 34% under
O 8.5 22% under
O 9.5 14% under
O 10.5 8% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Jacob Misiorowski MIL starter / home
Projected K 10.2 Actual 10 K / Over 9.5
Best price at 9.5 9.5 O +114 betrivers / U -121 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 9.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 100% over
O 2.5 100% over
O 3.5 99% over
O 4.5 97% over
O 5.5 93% over
O 6.5 86% over
O 7.5 78% over
O 8.5 67% over
O 9.5 56% over
O 10.5 44% under
O 11.5 34% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
MIA at COL Jul 2, 1:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRyan Gusto MIA starter / away
Projected K 3.5 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -108 fanduel / U -104 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 67% under
O 3.5 46% under
O 4.5 28% under
O 5.5 15% under
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Michael Lorenzen COL starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -120 fanatics / U +101 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% under
O 2.5 78% under
O 3.5 60% under
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
CHW at CLE Jul 2, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDavis Martin CHW starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -125 bovada / U +108 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% under
O 2.5 89% under
O 3.5 76% under
O 4.5 60% under
O 5.5 43% under
O 6.5 28% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Slade Cecconi CLE starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 bovada / U -140 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 69% under
O 4.5 52% under
O 5.5 35% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
STL at ATL Jul 2, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDustin May STL starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +105 betmgm / U -106 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% under
O 2.5 87% under
O 3.5 73% under
O 4.5 56% under
O 5.5 39% under
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Hurston Waldrep ATL starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -115 bovada / U -103 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% over
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
TBR at KCR Jul 2, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastIan Seymour TBR starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +115 betonlineag / U -120 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 54% over
O 4.5 35% over
O 5.5 21% over
O 6.5 11% over
O 7.5 5% over
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Stephen Kolek KCR starter / home
Projected K 3.4 Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +139 draftkings / U -162 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85% under
O 2.5 66% under
O 3.5 45% under
O 4.5 27% under
O 5.5 14% under
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
DET at TEX Jul 2, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastFramber Valdez DET starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +125 bovada / U -148 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 31%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% under
O 2.5 82% under
O 3.5 65% under
O 4.5 47% under
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Nathan Eovaldi TEX starter / home
Projected K 6.7 Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -108 fanduel / U +100 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 89% over
O 4.5 79% over
O 5.5 65% over
O 6.5 50% over
O 7.5 36% over
O 8.5 24% over
O 9.5 15% under
O 10.5 9% under
O 11.5 5% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
LAA at SEA Jul 2, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastWalbert Urena LAA starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -128 draftkings / U +120 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% over
O 5.5 43% over
O 6.5 28% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Bryce Miller SEA starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 8 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +138 fanduel / U -149 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 7.5 24%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 68% over
O 5.5 52% over
O 6.5 37% over
O 7.5 24% over
O 8.5 15% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
SDP at LAD Jul 2, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRandy Vásquez SDP starter / away
Projected K 3.4 Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +141 draftkings / U -164 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 84% under
O 2.5 65% under
O 3.5 43% under
O 4.5 25% under
O 5.5 13% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Roki Sasaki LAD starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +122 fanduel / U -140 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 81% under
O 4.5 67% under
O 5.5 51% under
O 6.5 36% under
O 7.5 23% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.