MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-07-12 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
MIL at PIT Jul 12, 10:15 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRobert Gasser MIL starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -140 betmgm / U +125 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 66% under
O 4.5 48% under
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Paul Skenes PIT starter / home
Projected K 6.0 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -130 fanduel / U +110 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 84% over
O 4.5 71% over
O 5.5 55% over
O 6.5 40% over
O 7.5 27% under
O 8.5 17% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
NYY at WSN Jul 12, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastWill Warren NYY starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +117 betonlineag / U -130 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 76% under
O 3.5 57% under
O 4.5 38% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Cade Cavalli WSN starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 bovada / U -116 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 49% under
O 6.5 34% under
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
KCR at BAL Jul 12, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSeth Lugo KCR starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -106 betonlineag / U -105 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 57% over
O 4.5 38% over
O 5.5 23% over
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Shane Baz BAL starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +126 fanduel / U -158 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 56% over
O 5.5 39% over
O 6.5 25% over
O 7.5 14% over
O 8.5 8% over
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
SEA at TBR Jul 12, 11:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastEmerson Hancock SEA starter / away
Projected K 3.7 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +134 betonlineag / U -160 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 32%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% under
O 3.5 51% under
O 4.5 32% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Ian Seymour TBR starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -139 betrivers / U +130 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% under
O 4.5 65% under
O 5.5 48% under
O 6.5 33% under
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
BOS at NYM Jul 12, 11:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastPayton Tolle BOS starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -114 betonlineag / U +112 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 32% over
O 6.5 19% over
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Zac Thornton NYM starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 betonlineag / U -135 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% over
O 4.5 34% over
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
CLE at MIA Jul 12, 11:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJoey Cantillo CLE starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -165 betmgm / U +132 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 58% over
O 5.5 41% over
O 6.5 27% over
O 7.5 16% over
O 8.5 9% over
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Tyler Phillips MIA starter / home
Projected K 2.6 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +145 bovada / U -170 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 26%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 72% under
O 2.5 47% under
O 3.5 26% under
O 4.5 12% under
O 5.5 5% under
O 6.5 2% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
PHI at DET Jul 12, 11:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastZack Wheeler PHI starter / away
Projected K 6.6 Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +110 bovada / U -130 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 7.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 88% over
O 4.5 77% over
O 5.5 63% over
O 6.5 48% over
O 7.5 35% over
O 8.5 23% over
O 9.5 14% over
O 10.5 8% under
O 11.5 5% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Tarik Skubal DET starter / home
Projected K 7.3 Actual 5 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O -118 betrivers / U +100 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 92% over
O 4.5 83% over
O 5.5 72% under
O 6.5 58% under
O 7.5 44% under
O 8.5 31% under
O 9.5 21% under
O 10.5 13% under
O 11.5 8% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
CHC at CIN Jul 12, 11:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMatthew Boyd CHC starter / away
Projected K 5.4 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -120 fanatics / U +100 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% under
O 4.5 62% under
O 5.5 46% under
O 6.5 31% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Andrew Abbott CIN starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +102 fanduel / U -113 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% under
O 4.5 59% under
O 5.5 42% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
LAA at MIN Jul 12, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJosé Soriano LAA starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 0 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +124 fanduel / U -153 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% under
O 2.5 86% under
O 3.5 72% under
O 4.5 55% under
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Taj Bradley MIN starter / home
Projected K 6.9 Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -107 betrivers / U +103 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 90% over
O 4.5 80% over
O 5.5 67% over
O 6.5 52% under
O 7.5 38% under
O 8.5 26% under
O 9.5 17% under
O 10.5 10% under
O 11.5 6% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
OAK at CHW Jul 12, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJ.T. Ginn OAK starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +100 bovada / U -117 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 35% over
O 6.5 22% over
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Noah Schultz CHW starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +105 bovada / U -119 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% over
O 4.5 45% under
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
ATL at STL Jul 12, 12:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDanny Young ATL starter / away Thin data
Projected K 2.9 Actual 1 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 78% under
O 2.5 55% under
O 3.5 34% under
O 4.5 18% under
O 5.5 8% under
O 6.5 3% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Dustin May STL starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -129 betrivers / U +112 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 54% under
O 5.5 37% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
HOU at TEX Jul 12, 12:35 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCristian Javier HOU starter / away
Projected K 3.0 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +112 draftkings / U -135 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 80% over
O 2.5 58% over
O 3.5 36% over
O 4.5 19% under
O 5.5 9% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
MacKenzie Gore TEX starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +108 fanduel / U -125 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% over
O 4.5 33% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
COL at SFG Jul 12, 2:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael Lorenzen COL starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -115 betmgm / U +106 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% under
O 2.5 72% under
O 3.5 53% under
O 4.5 34% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Trevor McDonald SFG starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +127 draftkings / U -135 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
TOR at SDP Jul 12, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKevin Gausman TOR starter / away
Projected K 5.7 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +105 betmgm / U -115 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 66% over
O 5.5 50% over
O 6.5 35% over
O 7.5 22% over
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Germán Márquez SDP starter / home
Projected K 3.4 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +134 betonlineag / U -150 betrivers 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85% over
O 2.5 66% over
O 3.5 45% over
O 4.5 27% under
O 5.5 14% under
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
ARI at LAD Jul 12, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMitch Bratt ARI starter / away
Projected K 2.6 Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +118 fanduel / U -137 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 26%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 72% under
O 2.5 47% under
O 3.5 26% under
O 4.5 12% under
O 5.5 5% under
O 6.5 2% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Emmet Sheehan LAD starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +130 bovada / U -150 fanatics 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 35% over
O 6.5 22% over
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.