MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-07-11 / 32 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
MIL at PIT Jul 11, 10:05 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrandon Sproat MIL starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +110 bovada / U -131 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% under
O 4.5 54% under
O 5.5 37% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Braxton Ashcraft PIT starter / home
Projected K 6.0 Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +128 betonlineag / U -141 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 70% over
O 5.5 54% over
O 6.5 39% under
O 7.5 26% under
O 8.5 16% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
LAA at MIN Jul 11, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRyan Johnson LAA starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -130 fanduel / U +118 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% under
O 2.5 79% under
O 3.5 61% under
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Joe Ryan MIN starter / home
Projected K 7.7 Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +100 betrivers / U -113 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 98% over
O 3.5 94% over
O 4.5 87% over
O 5.5 77% over
O 6.5 64% under
O 7.5 50% under
O 8.5 37% under
O 9.5 26% under
O 10.5 17% under
O 11.5 11% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
OAK at CHW Jul 11, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGage Jump OAK starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +104 betrivers / U -122 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 35% over
O 6.5 21% over
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Bryan Hudson CHW starter / home
Projected K 2.1 Actual 0 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 61% under
O 2.5 35% under
O 3.5 16% under
O 4.5 7% under
O 5.5 2% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
NYY at WSN Jul 11, 2:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCam Schlittler NYY starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +124 fanduel / U -141 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 29%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 44% over
O 6.5 29% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
PJ Poulin WSN starter / home
Projected K 2.1 Actual 3 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 62% over
O 2.5 35% over
O 3.5 17% under
O 4.5 7% under
O 5.5 2% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
COL at SFG Jul 11, 2:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKyle Freeland COL starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +129 draftkings / U -150 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% over
O 4.5 33% over
O 5.5 19% over
O 6.5 10% over
O 7.5 5% over
O 8.5 2% over
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Tyler Mahle SFG starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -152 betrivers / U +130 bovada 3 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% under
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
MIL at PIT Jul 11, 2:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShane Drohan MIL starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -154 betonlineag / U +128 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 44% over
O 5.5 28% over
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Bubba Chandler PIT starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +110 bovada / U -136 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 38% over
O 5.5 22% over
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
SEA at TBR Jul 11, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLogan Gilbert SEA starter / away
Projected K 5.8 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -120 betmgm / U -102 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 67% over
O 5.5 51% under
O 6.5 36% under
O 7.5 23% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Griffin Jax TBR starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -124 betrivers / U +110 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% under
O 4.5 60% under
O 5.5 43% under
O 6.5 28% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
BOS at NYM Jul 11, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastEduardo Rivera BOS starter / away Thin data
Projected K 3.3 Actual 3 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 83% over
O 2.5 63% over
O 3.5 41% under
O 4.5 24% under
O 5.5 12% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Freddy Peralta NYM starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -116 draftkings / U +100 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% over
O 5.5 38% over
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CLE at MIA Jul 11, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTanner Bibee CLE starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +110 betonlineag / U -125 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 55% under
O 4.5 36% under
O 5.5 21% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Eury Pérez MIA starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +110 draftkings / U -128 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 31%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 62% over
O 5.5 46% over
O 6.5 31% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
PHI at DET Jul 11, 4:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCristopher Sánchez PHI starter / away
Projected K 6.5 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -112 betonlineag / U +117 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 87% over
O 4.5 76% over
O 5.5 62% over
O 6.5 46% over
O 7.5 33% under
O 8.5 21% under
O 9.5 13% under
O 10.5 8% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Casey Mize DET starter / home
Projected K 5.7 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +112 betrivers / U -115 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 66% over
O 5.5 50% under
O 6.5 35% under
O 7.5 23% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
HOU at TEX Jul 11, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastPeter Lambert HOU starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -107 draftkings / U -106 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 51% over
O 5.5 34% over
O 6.5 21% over
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Kumar Rocker TEX starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +118 betrivers / U -135 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% over
O 5.5 25% over
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
KCR at BAL Jul 11, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNoah Cameron KCR starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +130 betonlineag / U -146 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 57% over
O 5.5 40% over
O 6.5 26% over
O 7.5 15% over
O 8.5 8% over
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Kyle Bradish BAL starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +110 bovada / U -133 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 62% over
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 31% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
CHC at CIN Jul 11, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJavier Assad CHC starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -104 draftkings / U -110 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 37% under
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Nick Lodolo CIN starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -148 fanduel / U +118 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 52% under
O 5.5 35% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
ATL at STL Jul 11, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastReynaldo López ATL starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +100 betmgm / U -114 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 70% over
O 3.5 49% under
O 4.5 30% under
O 5.5 17% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Matthew Liberatore STL starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +101 draftkings / U -113 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 32% over
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
TOR at SDP Jul 11, 6:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTrey Yesavage TOR starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +115 betmgm / U -133 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% under
O 2.5 88% under
O 3.5 75% under
O 4.5 58% under
O 5.5 41% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Walker Buehler SDP starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -130 fanatics / U +106 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 62%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% under
O 2.5 80% under
O 3.5 62% under
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
ARI at LAD Jul 11, 7:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrandon Pfaadt ARI starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -105 betmgm / U -115 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% under
O 3.5 56% under
O 4.5 37% under
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD starter / home
Projected K 5.7 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -145 fanatics / U +116 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 66% over
O 5.5 50% over
O 6.5 35% under
O 7.5 22% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.