Ranked picks with source labels.

Model has CLE 58.9%, market 57.5% — minimal comparison. Both pitchers lack resolved season stats (ERA, WHIP, K/9 all null), making pitcher evaluati...

Model SEA 58.6% vs market 55.4% is mild convergence. Hancock's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is extreme small-sample noise, not predictive. Burke's 6.75 ERA in...

CHC 26-12 vs TEX 17-20, market and model converge on Cubs ~58-59%. Rocker's missing stats are a data gap but TEX's 2.7 RPG offense is league-worst....

Model and market converge on NYM slight favorite (model 58.6%, market 56.1%). Nelson's 7.71 ERA in 4.2 IP per start signals durability issues; NYM'...

Model has CIN 58.1%, market implies 55.6% — close alignment. HOU offense (.695 OPS, 4.1 RPG) superior to CIN (.629 OPS, 3.8 RPG) but Burrows' 7.94...

Model and market converge at ~58% SDP, but McGreevy's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is pure noise over 10 starts. Canning's missing stats prevent proper evalu...

Model has TOR 57% vs market 60%, reasonable convergence. Cease's 20.25 K/9 over 5.1 IP is extreme small sample—likely regresses but still strong to...

Market has PHI at 66%, model has COL at 55%. Dollander has null stats (data_quality=full but no IP/ERA). Luzardo's 9.0 ERA in 6 IP is tiny sample....

Model has NYY 53% but market shows MIL +115 (46% implied), a 7-point gap favoring the home side the model underrates. Fried's 0.00 ERA in 6.1 IP is...

Sheehan's 10.8 ERA over 3.1 IP is catastrophic small sample—likely opener or injury return. Sale's 0.0 ERA in 6.0 IP equally noisy but ATL offense...

Model's 9.13 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.63-run structural miss. SFG starter is TBD fallback, Oracle runs at 0.91 PF, and SFG offense is catastrophi...