Ranked picks with source labels.

Model and market align on NYY (62.6% vs 61.4% implied). TOR's 4.9 RPG offense is substantially better than NYY's 4.0, yet model favors home by 1+ r...

Market implies ATL 64.9%, model has 58.6%. Sale's 0.00 ERA in 60 IP is elite (likely TJ recovery). Model projects 9.17 runs vs market 7.5—too high...

Model and market converge exactly at 58% on SEA. Hancock's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is microscopic sample; Burke's 6.75 ERA in 4.0 IP equally thin. T-Mob...

DET starter is TBD with fallback data. Model predicts DET at 57.5% while market implies CLE 53.8% — an 11-point gap favoring the home side with no...

Model at 57.5% vs market 51.9% on CHC is not enough comparison. MIL offense (4.5 RPG, .972 OPS) far superior to CHC (3.1 RPG, .694 OPS), yet model...

Model has SDP 57.5% vs market's 39.3%—an 18-point gap. Ohtani's pitching stats are null (likely two-way player designation issue), making SP data u...

Home pitcher is TBD with fallback data (1.0 IP, 18.00 ERA placeholder). Away pitcher Baz has just 5.1 IP this season. Model picks BAL at 55.2% vs m...

McGreevy's 6.0 IP, 0.00 ERA is a 10-start mirage—unbelievable rate stats on minimal volume. Model picks PIT at 55.2% vs market 47.9%, likely overwe...

Wacha's 6.0 IP and 0.0 ERA across 10 starts is clearly incomplete data (< 1 IP/start average), making his quality unknowable. Early's 5.1 IP over 1...