Ranked picks with source labels.

Model has DET 62.9% vs market 55.2% — a 7.7pp gap favoring the home side. But DET scores just 2.4 RPG (.582 OPS) while LAA scores 3.4 RPG (.860 OPS...

Model has CLE 60% vs market 56%, but WSN offense is demonstrably superior: 5.9 RPG / .820 OPS vs CLE 4.1 / .600. Both pitchers show identical 4.91...

Model favors CHC 58.6% vs market's 44.8% (implied from +119). Missing pitcher stats for both starters makes this thin—model leans on rolling offens...

Model gives CHW 57.5% at home despite Joe Ryan's elite 0.00 ERA and 0.56 WHIP vs Burke's 6.75 ERA and 2.0 WHIP in limited IP. Market correctly favo...

Both starters lack meaningful stats: NYM is TBD fallback, CIN's Burns has null ERA/IP/K9. Model predicts 8.86 total vs market 7.0 (1.86 run gap) bu...

Model picks BAL 53.5% but market has TBR -110 (52.4%). Tampa Bay is 34-17 vs Baltimore 24-30, 5.7 RPG vs 4.4, .802 OPS vs .662. Both pitchers have...

Model likes SFG at 53.6% vs market 48.8%, but ARI has better record (28-25 vs 22-32), better offense (5.7 RPG, .564 OPS vs 5.0 RPG, .388 OPS). Rodr...

Market favors TEX at 55.1% vs model's HOU at 52.2%. Both teams weak offenses (3.6-3.9 RPG) but Globe Life is a hitter's park (PF 1.04). Pitcher sta...