Ranked picks with source labels.

Model favors HOU 58.3% vs market's 44.9% implied — an 13.4pp gap triggers the disagreement flag. DET's 0.4 RPG offense is catastrophically bad over...

Model has NYY 58.3%, market 52.3% — modest comparison. Cole (3.62 ERA, 8.07 K/9) is solid but Bennett (3.71 ERA in 26.7 IP) has been competent. BOS...

Model favors ARI 58.3% vs market 41.2% (large disagreement flag). Jose Cabrera has 1 start, 5.0 IP—meaningless sample. Cole Sulser 5.40 ERA in 31.7...

Model has LAD at 58.3%, market implies 64.3% — a 6-point gap favoring the Dodgers more than model suggests. Yamamoto (2.65 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) vs Vásqu...

Model picks CIN at 53.4%, market implies 51.6% for CIN. Chase Burns' 2.00 ERA in 85.7 IP is real; Jones' 5.75 ERA in 20.3 IP is small-sample noise....

Model likes WSN at 53.4%, market has them at 48.5% — modest comparison. Both pitchers sub-3.15 ERA but Griffin's peripherals (8.77 K/9, 1.06 WHIP)...

Model prefers COL at 53.4% vs market's 43.5% — a 10pp gap flags structural error. COL is 28-54 with 1.5 RPG and .531 OPS, historically weak offense...

Model has ATL 53.4%, market has them at 47.7% — model is higher on the road favorite. SFG's 1.9 RPG and .388 OPS are catastrophically bad; ATL's 0....

Market strongly favors MIL at 60% implied vs model's 51.7%. Peterson's 6.09 ERA in 68 IP is legitimate weakness. However, MIL's 1.3 RPG is alarming...

Rangel has only 8.0 IP this season; treating him as a 2.25 ERA pitcher is a small-sample trap. Scott's 3.10 ERA over 40.7 IP is more credible but s...