Ranked picks with source labels.

Model 58.2% vs market implied 59.5% — essentially aligned, no comparison to exploit. Both offenses score little (NYY 3.7 RPG, STL 3.3 RPG) and Yank...

Model has ARI at 53% against a market implying 46.7%, and the starter gap argues the other way: Mize owns a 2.70 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 86.2 IP ver...

Model's 52.4% on TOR is over 10 points off the market's 62.9% home implied, and the pitching comparison runs the other way: Brown at 3.42 ERA/9.4 K...

Model takes WSN at 52.4% against a market implying 63.3% home, driven by Painter's 6.72 ERA/1.61 WHIP. But it is picking the team with the worse re...

Coin flip: market implies 52.4% home, model has MIN at 52.4%. Kremer's 6.50 ERA over just 36 IP is worse than Cameron's 4.59 across 115.7 IP, which...

Model's 8.95 total is nearly two runs above the market's 7.0, unsupported by a 0.95 park factor and two starters with 10.9 and 11.3 K/9 and sub-1.1...