NYM at PHI

Model at 62.4% aligns with market's 63.6% on PHI, both correctly weighting Sánchez's elite 1.82 ERA over 99 IP. However, model projects 8.92 runs v...

Market heavily favors LAD at 70.3% vs model's 62.4%. Yamamoto (2.52 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) vs Rogers (5.86 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) is a large pitching gap. Model'...

Model has WSN at 56.8% but market is near pick'em (52.9% TBR). Model sees +0.66 runs comparison from total vs market 8.0. WSN averaging 5.5 RPG wit...

Model predicts 9.28 runs vs market 7.5—a 1.78 run gap flags structural miss. TEX offense is league-worst at 3.0 RPG despite .698 OPS; SDP at 3.9 RP...

Model has PIT 54.5%, market implies 65.4% — significant gap favoring Pirates. Skenes (2.85 ERA, 10.87 K/9 in 82 IP) is elite; Sugano (4.54 ERA, 5.0...

Model has MIL 51% vs market 48%, essentially a toss-up. Sale (2.30 ERA) and Harrison (2.47 ERA) are both elite, arguing under, but MIL's offense (5...

Model picks BOS at 51.1% but market favors SEA at 53.9%. T-Mobile's 0.855 park factor suppresses scoring. Both starters carry sub-4.00 ERAs over 75...